Well I listened to it again. JZ has clearly changed his comments from the Q3 concall and is now stating (around 20 minutes into the webcast) that if they GIA they will be putting the saleforce in place by end of december to early January. Also I get the indication that they may well be contemplating GIA much more than acquisition. Partnering seems to be the last option now.
What does it mean? No new from Amarin till end of next month. The saleforce hiring will occur end of december to start of january.
Listening to the whole conference also made it clear that this is not an ordinary drug with an ordinary market. In a year or so when the ANchor is approved this is a $40 billion market as per JZ and when the Reducit is complete that market will double to $80 billion again as per JZ. I hope they dont sell till at least Anchor patents are locked in and Anchor is approved. We have the potential to be huge in just one year.
$40 billion market? it was good thinking for every long on this board to have voted Obama back in 'cause that's the only way even a fraction of those numbers get realized.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Thanks for bring this point up. I also listened to the Lazard presentation and followed along with the slide show. John stated that if they GIA they will "put a sales force in place by the end of December". To me that means that's when they will start calling on potential clients and going to clinics to talk to phycians about Vascepa. As previously stated by JZ the hiring would occur now, ie offers being sent and training to follow in early December. So there has been NO change in the plan, just two executives on the same timeline using different wording.
I encourage all to review the recording and follow the presentation. Especially when he get to the market size...$40 Billion then double with REDUCE-IT and triple that world wide;). No F'n way are they selling for 20, 30, 40 right now.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I'm not understanding why you say they should wait til anchor is approved before they sell. What difference does it make? Are you saying that since anchor is not approved that they ate not going to put the anchor indication in the bo price?
The market is pricing the company within the range of $25-28. Look at Citi and MKM. thats just crazy. If Anchor was included the valuation would be much much higher and we would be sitting at $20. The market is not including the Anchor in the valuation and neither is BP. Yes they are playing a game. JZ is including the Anchor in his asking price which I assume is in the range of $40-50 while BP is saying no way since you dont have any patents nor an NDA let alone the approval for the $40 B market. So they will not include it in their offer which is around $25. The price difference is so much between JZ and BP that this will / could drag till we have the NDA filed or maybe even the FDA approval for the Anchor. So yes, I think we should wait till Anchor. One more reason to wait is that by that time we will have over 20-30 patents in place. Can you imagine what that would mean?
The market expects the B/O to be in the range of $25-28. No way is the Anchor indication included in this range. If it was, the B/O expectations would be much higher by the various analysts etc. Look at Citi. $20. are they crazy? MKM $15. My expectations are that because we dont have any patents e.g. 520 yet for the Anchor and we have not filed the NDA yet, the market is not including the Anchor in this B/O pricing model. I am assuming that the BP are doing the same and JZ will hopefully not accept any offer without the Anchor indication. I am also assuming that the delay till now is not due to NCE but more due to the difference in the opinions of the BP and JZ of the value of Amarin. I believe JZ is asking around $40-50 with the Anchor and BP is close to $25 saying that Anchor cannot be included in the price yet. So I believe we will GIA for now till Q1 maybe when we file the NDA.