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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • finance1229 finance1229 Dec 1, 2012 11:06 AM Flag

    Go all in the day of NCE approval

    I read a post suggesting that he/she will get out when price hits 15. I totally disagree. If price hits 15, then it probably means that they got NCE (or some other good news). At that time, I would be buying more, not getting out. In fact, my strategy is to go all in the day they announce NCE approval (maybe up to 15-16 pps). What do you think about my strategy of betting the farm and going all in the day they announce NCE?

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    • I believe NCE denial is already pretty much priced in so I don't see the risk of buying now. Waiting for approval carries the risk of being able to buy at the price you suggest (15-16). What is your plan if it jumps to $18, $20,$30? My guess is you'll sit there and swear that you didn't follow your gut. As for your go all in strategy you should diversify. Especially given that you have so little faith in this stock that you aren't ready to buy now.

    • If your intent is a BUY, then waiting until AFTER the NCE is given is the more/most prudent thing to do, even if you're not going to get those 2-5 points you could have, by buying pre-NCE. (Less risky, since a NO decion to the NCE could set AMRN back 2-5 points, too.)

      Others buy in now, pre-NCE, because they think the NCE is going to be given. This is the more risk, compared to the former. But if they're right, these people get those 2-5 or so points, PLUS what everyone's thinking, too: a BO shortly after the NCE announcment.

      Investors must make their own calculated buys, or sells, and know why they are taking the risks they do.

    • Think its a bad idea because of timing. AMRN will get a determination letter from the FDA prior to the OB being updating, possibly a week of two prior. Its a lot more likely you will hear from the decision from the company before the OB website is updated. Im already long but if I were getting in, Id get in sometime this week depending on how the week develops. NCE will be a risk no matter what but if your playing from NCE Im fairly confident determination will be known before 1:30p or whatever on the 14th. Just my .02

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 1 Reply to threetentynineten
      • Wrong on the letter....NCE is announced only one way by the FDA and that is through the Orange Book, there is no written communication by the FDA to a drug company that ANNOUNCES NCE. Don't believe? Just go to the FDA website and read. It is explicitedly stated. The letter that you are confusing is a letter to EXPLAIN how the decision was reached by the FDA. That will be provided AT THE TIME OF THE RELEASE OF THE NEXT OB. Wall Street, Amarin , all of us here will have to wait for the next OB which is scheduled for on or about Dec. 14.

        The only (hopefully) news about the NCE decision that may come out is the FDA may advise Amarin before Dec. 14 that they have reached a decision. Keep in mind that is only a notification that a decision has been reached, NOT WHAT THE DECISION IS, again that will come out in the Dec. OB.

    • go all in now, get out day before NCE and get it after NCE announcement

      • 2 Replies to imransaeed1971
      • This response makes sene to me as well. Just treat it like and FDA approval. There is gains to be made leading up to an approval, not immediately following. The sell on news allows shorts to pull the stock down knowing that it still takes several quarters to get a drug manufactured, marketed and earning money through sales. Hope the news comes out early in the day and on a good day. Sell off will happen in AH or premarket the following day.

      • that's also true. actually, if the NCE is the only thing making people queasy, then what IMRAN suggested is likely the most meaningful approach.

        granted, if 5,000 traders all do that, then it is not possible, because the price flactuations would be too unpredictable; but if you're just a small fly on the wall, doing it alone, then with AMRN's 3M-5m daily volume, it is very stable and a certain (exit) price range could be more accurately gauged..

    • Go all-in now, not after 40-50% increase

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