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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • williams4076 williams4076 Dec 13, 2012 9:32 AM Flag

    How important are these stupid patents?

    Important enough to use as collateral for $100 loan.

    NCE means Jachsh!t

    It would be nice but not needed for this blockbuster.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • A patent is a patent. Unfortunately, stock market does not always agree with the company's performance/potential.

      So, there is no link between AMRN the stock, and AMRN the company. Just trade on indicators.

    • Amarin could have raised money by selling shares 10 million shares--which are dilutive-affects EPS in 2013. Say earnings are 150 mil.$--then 150/150 mil.shares=1.00$/share- with extra 10 mil. shares--EPS =150/160 mil.Shares=0.94$/share--drop of 6% due to issuing more shares-.
      Second choice to take a loan for 100 mil.$-- interest due is 2.5 mil.$ in Nov.2013--
      Now 150-2.5=147.5 divided by 150 mil. Shares=0.98/share --drop of 2% due to the loan.
      It is true that after 2013--interest rates are much higher--and loan would lower EPS more. BUT if Amarin SALES are good in 2013 or if someone partners in launching Anchor opportunity in 2014--then this loan can be repaid in 2013.

    • well for the past month, any patent news makes the stock go down.
      don't mean crap until NCE is determined unfortunately

      • 1 Reply to asp924
      • Agree...... It's funny how in the Past Patent News was such a huge deal and now with Patent after Patent granted it's doing nothing almost.... it's almost like this is being ignored. The Market is focused on NCE and Buyout with the GIA situation holding the share price down.

        This won't last regardless. When the dust settles even with no NCE or no short term buyout once the Sales start coming in the share price will rebound... and the Patent situation will become a lot more of an issue as it will clearly guarantee market dominance for quite a while for Vascepa.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Wrong !!! You must not have been paying attention for quite a while. NCE means "market exclusivity" where the FDA won't even consider Generic applications for 5 years (with limited exceptions). This could allow (depending) Amarin to book a lot of Sales virtually unopposed (except by the inferior drug Lovaza) without looking over their shoulders for quite a while. Generic Companies won't go after Amarin during this time and "yes" the large number of Patents are a huge discouragement too. Rumor (sorry, but I have to add this.. usually discount rumors, but this makes sense and it's been coming from various sources) has it that Generic Companies aren't going to go after Amarin for several years anyway mainly because of the mountain of Patents they'd have to contend with and the huge court costs that don't guarantee a win. The NCE will delay this even further out.

      In addition the Market has made the NCE a bigger deal that maybe it is too. It is likely that with granting of the NCE a potential buyer (there are more than one) will use this as a green light to make a serious (and reasonable) offer. Offers right now are probably too low and Amarin is not considering them preferring to use the Go it Alone Strategy since in the longer term this will mean a bigger payout than the lousy offers from big Bio (made or batted around) and/or a better offer coming in early to mid next year when Amarin proves market acceptability and Sales start to come in. The NCE makes this a whole new ball game.

      This is pretty much common sense backed up by a lot of information that it readily available.

      So now you know.

      BTW - Bashers need not reply - all the ones here have been put on ignore already - easymoney, boilerscam, etc. ... worthless board garbage posters

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • 2 Replies to jrsautr
      • I'm more interested in the FDA filling in the Thearaputic Code. There's by the FDA's no thearaputic equal...this should be a head up on where Vascepa and Lovaza should line up in their Tier system. (Going by the current definition of thearaputic equivalence and pharmaceutical equivalent at the FDA.

        This has materially harmed Vascepa's launch by the current tier order. Thanks FDA;(

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • NCE is unimportant in the act that no generics will enter the market before 2020, in worst case scenario, with or without NCE. However, the possibility of defending patents is out there if NCE not granted which has a cost involved. Also it is much easier to build a consensus in BP if NCE is granted as some people will have an opinion that generic risk is much greater with no NCE and thus the value is much less. So with no NCE decision no buyout can happen.

        In the end NCE should be granted, everything seems to point to that, but either way the company will eventually be sold and well north of current price. It is definitely happening before Anchor is approved and still suspect it'll happen before or shortly after any Marine launch. The longer it goes the more likely GSK will be the acquiring company. Just makes too much sense.

        The short term cost of patent defense is over-stated. Any real costs would be a minimum 3 years down the road and generic companies are not going to spend much money and time unless they truly believe they can win and best I can tell until 2020 they have little chance of winning so 5-6 years before any real expenses related to defending patents. Not a big concern today.

    • Moooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    • Yep, you got it, AMRN's assets are now mortaged for 100 million (not really worth anything near that, but most creditors are also dumb as bricks).

      SO why the F are this turd of a company priced at 1,5 BILLION in the stock market??

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • OH.....PUMPER......GET IT......GET IT......GO GO GO!

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

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