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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • kbrod1 kbrod1 Dec 23, 2012 1:57 PM Flag

    no blockbuster

    As a physician myself with several thousand patients I've written for quite a number of lipid lowering agents over the years. Primary Care Physicians try to identify their patients at risk whether it be because of family history, heart dz., diabetes, etc. and try to lower their risks by a combination of life style changes as well as lipid lowering agents. Believe me I've written for my share of pravachol, lovastatin, zocor, lipitor, and crestor. I do not own any AMRN and do not see the logic (financially) in doing so. My reason is quite simple and realistic. As a physician in the trenches you become accustomed to common diseases, trends, and generally accepted treatment criteria. When I see the patients at risk above it is generally the LDL that I am trying to lower. I try to get them 80 or lower which can be difficult in itself. I can count maybe 10 patients in my practice which have an isolated triglyceride problem. Granted you have a number of patients with a mixed lipid profile but they are usually remedied for the most part by a single statin. For those with isolated trigly. I have rarely used Lovasa because of compliance issues. Who wants to swallow four large horse pills a day forever. The fibrates have faired better as they are at least a normal sized pill and once a day.Niacin causes too much flushing even if you take an aspirin at the doses necessary to lower trigly. substancially.. Recent data however have shown although the numbers look better on them the end result (prevention of heart disease) have not. Be it as it may if this new triglyceride lowering agents works or not the number of patients who will really needed are limited. One can mention data showing 40 million people needing such an agent but by the same token you can mention data showing that there are a much greater number of Americans who are untreated diabetics. These patients either do not see a doctor or simply do not comply so any drug is going to be of little benefit to them. Also I've always been very weary of data coming into my office by the pharmaceutical reps. Most pharmaceutical companies hire research mills to do their studies and if 10 studies show no benefit and one shows merit it is the latter that they will come into my office with their glossy brochures to show me not mentioning (or knowing) the other failures. I always look at the sample size and you would be surprised how many times I've seen n=13 or so which essentially renders their data useless. That all being said if AMRN can prove that their new agent has true efficacy it certainly will have a use by mainstream physicians but clearly it's not going to be a blockbuster by any means.

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    • You have no shares but you want to express your opinion. Really? How many other biotechs do you also comment on of which you have no shares? Why?

      Lovaza has a market and so will AMRN

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 1 Reply to fdabites
      • Kbrod

        Maybe this will help as per "blockbuster " potential .

        Back on March 18th --poster Marsala ( apparently another Primary Care Doc ) posted his projections

        1) Basically Vascepa is likely to dominate the very high TG market ( the problems with Lovaza, Niacin and Fibrates has been well covered .)

        2) The 200-500 TG range ----based on NCEP guidelines and including an estimate on diabetics , he figures 7-9 million patients in the US . He acknowledges that cost may be an issue for these patients .

        So that may not be a " blockbuster " but I think it justifies a stock price higher then the current $8 a share.

    • If you are a Dr. which is questionable, are you a cardiologist or a horse doctor? How can you say the drug wont be a blockbuster when Lovaza is even if you dont prescribe.

    • Wow...I read the replies to this doctor's posts and no wonder the only people who seem to post here regularly are shorts and longs who are obviously under educated and not psychology fit to deal with anyone who disagrees with them. Hope these folks aren't married...LOL!

      Starting to doubt why I bought this stock in the first place given the other longs who own it and post here...Yikes!

    • Thank you very much for taking the time to post your thoughts as an obviously very qualified and successful physician. Your sentiments make a great deal of sense and one that I considered before I recently invested. I decided to get on board mainly because of the 50% drop after FDA approval for Vascepa, but I am concerned like some others here with their GIA strategy.

      Your demeanor is certainly different from the resident claimed physician here, a poster going by the name of Jesse Livermore, and one that I expect from a pfofessional like yourself. You will no doubt be "bashed" for you thoughts here but I am one long who sincerely appreciated the opinion and candor.

    • Which planet are you from?
      No physician writes only 12 messages in 5 years. Physicians talk much more (see jesse).
      No physician on a Sunday evening jump on a PC, searches for AMRN YMB, posts a thread only to inform shareholders of a Company he's not long nor shorting.

      A physician would post in a medical blog/website.

      You're not a physician.

      You're either an analyst or a broker.

    • Which planet are you from?
      No physician writes only 12 messages in 5 years. Physicians talk much more (see jesse).
      No physician on a Sunday evening jump on a PC, searches for AMRN YMB, posts a thread only to inform shareholders of a Company he's not long nor shorting.

      A physician would post in a medical blog/website.

      You're not a physician.

      You're either an analyst or a broker.

    • Kb

      You said you are a doctor and label Lipitor as a blockbuster drug. What if we come up with a Vascepa and Lipitor combo that's way better than Lipitor by itself. Now, would you prescribe the combo drug or the Lipitor? What I don't understand you is that how can you sound 100% sure that Vascepa is not going to be a blockbuster drug? If you can't answer this question in a medicaly meaningful way you are a disguised basher!

      Merry Christmas to you!

      • 1 Reply to vectorkhk
      • It would not be allowed to start as a combo as you describe. Such things take a long time and considerable expense. There have been several combo statins out already by the way, zocor/zetia and lovastatin/niacin. Neither have proved to be successful. The reason why I've stated that Vascepa will not be a blockbuster is my experience and those of my colleagues. Its just a numbers game. Most single/mixed lipid disorders are successfully treated with statins. Very few patients have isolated high triglycerides and this is mainly a genetic disorder. Vascepa will surely have a market but not a huge one. Whereas I write for statins virtually every day maybe once a month I would prescribe Vascepa. Then you also have insurance issues. They never want to pay for a new medication even if it has proven results especially when there are other generics available. It's just the name of the game. As for the rude inconsiderate individual above who made fun of someone's medical problem and called him names; it is easy to ascertain the calibre of individual you are and I will leave it at that. I highly recommend the video Fork Over Knives to all my patients. Here there were individuals with end-stage heart disease. They already had bypasses and subsequent stents placed on them as well. Their cardiologists had nothing more to offer them. They all became strict vegans and 20 years later they're alive and well and essentially thriving with no heart disease. Very remarkable results so its never too late irrespective of your disease.

    • you sir are a charlatan and being put on ignore. Let me take that back, you're not a sir your a S_it head....

    • Another "doctor" basher! I'm really impressed. . .NOT! IGGY!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

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