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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • imransaeed1971 imransaeed1971 Mar 21, 2013 3:28 AM Flag

    Why are long term investors impatient here? Have faith.........

    I don't understand why long term investors here are getting so impatient. How many 'good news' do you want the company to release? Other than the $100M loan there has been nothing but good news after good news. Even that loan was done so smartly that you have to give credit to JZ without any stock dilution and back ended payments (major of which will occur long after Anchor approvals).

    We forget very quickly so let me refresh your memories about good news since July: From Marine approval to all of the major Marine patents to Anchor patents to sNDA submission to launch on time to Tier 2 coverage; the marketing campaigns, the very professionally done advertisements in all the right places, the hiring of the top of the class salesforce. 20% wee/week increase in RXs. All of these prescriptions are literally being snatched from a current incumbent. You know how difficult a task that is?

    Have we had a single negative news since the launch? I didnt think so.

    C'mon guys. Give it a rest already. Have a little faith in this company and management. We are down here because this is where we should have been in the first place and not the hyped up level of $16 with all the stupid buy-out rumors made by SA and Motel fools. (I got in at 11) JZ always said they were in discussions. 99% of all small biotech management says the same thing.

    The GIA announcement was a must because JZ didnt want to sell the company at a price lower than what it was prior to approval. If he sat on his bum and did nothing then the market would kill the stock and we would be sitting at 2 or 3 pps. It was a choice they made a company and i think it was the best choice considering the potential blockbuster product we have.

    The reason for stock price at this level is not management's fault. It is pure low volume manipulation. No major institution is selling. In fact there have only been new holdings.

    Lets give them the benefit of doubt and watch. I think we are in a for a positive future.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Long term investors are impatient because in truth and reality, there are about 2 of them on this entire Board, while 50, who post routinely, all profess to be. The "true" definition of a long term investor is holding a stock for 3-5 years, or more, or until it goes down 25% from my purchase price, whichever occurs first. LOL

      Why are "long term holders" so impatient? Because unlike JNJ or IBM, this stock may not even be around
      for the "long term". I'm not predicting failure mind you, but few diehards here seem to comprehend that the company is in a real life or death struggle right about now. And as they said in "Top Gun", by the time they launch "red dog 4", the entire battle could be over.

      As for some of your facts, that currently some 16 blind faith, to the Kool Aide punch bowl longs, seem to
      give thumbs up to, the loan you speak of was not 100 million, but is 150 million. I know, what's the big deal about another 50 million when we're all looking at the next Amgen! My bad. And yes...that deal was done so smartly that it saved us a whole 4.9% in dilution if it was done with stock at these same price those guys were selling their at ($14), and we could have avoided pledging every asset the company owns to these gentle benevolent lenders of last resort.

      "Tier 2 coverage"? I must have missed that one. 20% week to week script improvements "snatched" from the competition? Well I guess if you have $5 in your wallet between yourself and starvation, a $1 more is indeed a big deal...LOL! No negative news? Oh gosh...I thought the stock price falling from $16 toi $7 was kind of negative, but again, my bad...sorry.

      "Motel fools"? Are we being discussed on that site as well? I book with them just for their in room
      "movies" if you know what I mean! LOL...Now that is a great place to advertise Vascepa, or was that
      Viagra, get them confused sometimes...LOL!

      No...I take it all back! JZ is a marketing genius. We will do great in the long term!
      Thanks for your post

    • the share price reflects the current maximum Rx while production capacity remains constrained to nisshin. when the other suppliers are FDA-approved AND their production capacity is revealed the share price will no longer be capped.

    • I think it is pretty obvious, stock price has been cut in half and the thing with being a long term investor is that the stock is expected to recover with Anchor sales and WHAT IF we are wrong on Anchor sales? By the time we get enough info to realize this the stock price will be too low to save face. That's pretty much it.

      On the longs side:
      -No real interest payments until Anchor sales start(Smart financing)
      -300-500 million in Anchor sale in 2014 going to Lovaza will switch to Vascepa as it will cost 5 times as much to take Lovaza off label with no coverage than Vascepa on Tier 2
      -Combo study results expected to be very good
      -REDUCE IT interim results possible 2014-15(Based on JELIS should be good)
      -Management very good history
      -Product very good science for effectiveness and little side effects.
      -NCE approval likely
      -BO likely in any scenario even if management does not succeed they could still get $10/share and bail

      Problems for Longs
      -Marine sales likely to disappoint WS especially Q1
      -Analyst estimates may drop after Q1 sales announced
      -NCE uncertainty
      -No real large sales catalyst until 4Q for Anchor approval
      -Need more money for Anchor launch(Dilution?, what will partner terms be..?)
      -Educating Doctors with small sales force(Until larger force with Anchor)
      -Educating on EPA vs EPA/DHA to general public and PCP's with small sales force

      As you can see almost all of the problems are on the near term and most of the positives are longer term. it's all about Anchor and if Anchor disappoints or the partnership deal(in whatever form) for Anchor is not well received then upside is less than expected.

      They SHOULD earn 50 cents to $1 in 2014 which is 10-20 stock price not accounting for growth prospects
      They SHOULD be near $2 in 2015 in earnings or $40+ stock price by end 2015 IF Anchor goes as longs expect.
      Need ANCHOR partnership to be known and sales start for ANCHOR to reach full potential. Maybe Marine sales will start to pick up more dramatically.

    • kkllfla Mar 21, 2013 8:22 AM Flag

      Nice read.
      However, it is all about perception, sales performance, and CASH BURN.
      The expectations of anyone who has been in AMRN for more than 18 months were of a quick buyout. WIth that not occurring, cash burn rate, poor sales, and the strong short efforts, the PPS is now the issue, along with the extended duration for the buyout or partner.
      If this continues past July, they will need to go back to the market for more $$$. DILUTION
      Remember, Joe Z has very little skin in the game. He and team sold out a large portion of their shares & options at much higher prices.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • Great read. Refreshing to read such positive realistic news about our company. Keep em coming!!! I iggy'd 80% of this board.

3.07-0.11(-3.46%)Aug 24 4:00 PMEDT