ONLY FACTS that can be backed up and or proven please.. Answer CAN NOT BE OPINION or STOCK PRICE!! This is the market ppl. Stocks go up and down for lots of reasons.. However people try and Bash amrn so let's see what REAL DD and Info backs it up...
- Also drug launch can't be used either. Drugs on market 7 weeks and the PUBLIC is ONLY Privy to a % of the actual #'s...
- I will list just a few facts of why AMRN will succeed in near term.
All milestones met so far, FDA apprvl, Marine and Drug Launch
sNDA ANCHOR filed on time PDUFA date by May 10th
ANCHOR Trail run under SPA (exceeded endpoints hit n proven) FDA Approval by year end
18 Patents n protection till 2030 & 520 ANCHOR PATENT official on 4-2-13
ANCHOR mkt (10x's bigger mkt) - Vascepa ONLY drug
Combo mkt ($26 Bill year) - Vascepa only drug
Tier 2 Insurance - after only 6 weeks of launch is unheard of
160 million lives covered under M.C (1/3 of US population)
Keep in mind most INst ownership on avg is a great company in less then 30%, through all the ups and downs AMRN is still 54% Inst owned and it's at these levels and higher..
Those are just a few of the many that make Amarin and Vascepa a BLOCKBUSTER and BP knows it..
Let's see what FACTS can argue on the opposite side for the bears...
I'm trying to have a real discussion but I'm sure there will be some non sense. Just trying to show in the end WHY SMART $$ is usually the ones the make most of the MAJOR profits in opportunities like AMRN, where most retail get scared and run..
I just would like to see what real hard facts that can be backed up with proven data etc, NOT opinion puts amrn in a bearish position..
You are spot on with your assessment which is why I bought more @ 6.87,,,,,,,currently AMRN is trading on bad technicals and fear,,,,,,,,,,,,everything you say is true and in the long run we could have a 4 bagger from here,,,,,,,,,and the down side? what maybe 6.27 for a day or two,,,,,,,,,this is an easy double from here by year end
I'll play along as well ,only as devil's advocate, because I am long 20k plus shares.
The stock has fallen from a high of 15.90 in July, 2012, to a low of 6.80 today.
There has been no partner, or buyout.
There has been no NCE.
Insiders sold millions of dollars worth of stock last year starting at $14.00.
This is a one product company. There is no ongoing R&D program except for Vascepa.
The launch of Anchor will require a partner per the company.
Reduce IT will cost hundreds of millions of dollars in clinicnal trials and take 5-6 years.
The funding of the Reduce Trials will also require a partner or jv.
The company has issued 300 millon dollars in debt obligations since 2012.
The company has pledged basically all of their assets to their creditors.
Payment of the interest due to creditors can be made in stock at the option of the company.
The current market cap of the company is over 1 billion dollars.
Sales for Vascepa for 2013 are likely to be under 150 million.
The company is seeking to allow additional borrowings.
The company will need to raise capital in 2014.
Generic competition will come starting in 2015.
We are mostly now Tier 3 insurance coverage.
Company is likely to post a substantial loss for 2013-2014.
Sales have gotten off to a fairly slow start.
No insiders have been buying stock on the open market,
The stock recently broke technical support at $7.50.
Here is the problem with what you have posted..
Insider sales were pre planned from 8 months prior, AND THEY ALL BOUGHT with own $ in Jan 2013
NCE is irrelevant, It's only important b4 they got all the patents, Plus you get 3 yr min anyway and in the ANCHOR n Combo mkt there is NO Competeion
Generics??? You can only now make a generic of Vascepa. From this point it would take min 3-5 years. By them Vascepa will control the market.
Reduce it is 6 year trials. way to far DTR
Tier 2 goes into effect this year,
Sales are NOT off to slow start bc we are ONLY privy to IMS which is only a small part of the real #'s. Not to mention the IMS #'s alone show we are ahead of where Lovaza was
Lovaza lost 4% mkt share already... WHERE DO YOU THINK THOSE patients are going??
I said I would discuss based on PROVEN FACTS.... 1/2 of your post are YOUR ASSUMTIONS. The other 1/2 is wrong... INSIDERS bought this year in Jan.. Yet you post no insider buys..
I'm not going to go thru the rest because there i too much it seems your not realizing.
Let me give you some advice as a FRIEND!!!! If you own over 20k shares and are still long, HOW do you put your hard earned $$ behind a company you really don't know, but on a side note you seem to have a very negative outlook... Not trying to be an a hole really I'm just curious. A lot of your info is incorrect.
What many fail to realize is there has been NO, NONE, ZERO, treatment for the 40 mill ANCHOR population up until Vascepa. The Lipid space has been search for a drug like Vascepa for many decades, its a fact.. When Lovaza the 1st ever Trig drug to be approved came to market 3 diff company's including Pfyzer tryed to combine their Statin with Lovaza to treat the entire market, but lovaza's side effects prevented it...
Just bc the ANCHOR mkt and Combo mkt have been untaped, doesn't mean they are not there.
Hope my facts give you a clear picture.
I'm not a bear, I am VERY long and strong, but I'll play....
There is no questioning the execution on the business side from this company. They have hit/met pretty much all endpoints over the last 2 years regarding all aspects of the business. Tremendous job from the business standpoint. HOWEVER, you are a fellow Wall Street guy, right? We both know that it takes more than outstanding business execution for a publicly traded company to flourish, and for a stock to rise. Management investor execution is equally as critical. How a company manages Wall Street will make all the difference in how a companies stock performs. I have seen great companies get crushed because of this. Haven't you? JZ has made countless errors on this front since last summer. 60-90 exciting days? NCE much ado about nothing? Two monthly filings regarding no decision from FDA re NCE, (Aug & Sept I believe) only to then stop that and issue a quiet period, only to tell MKM in November that he believes a decision was "imminent"? Very inconsistent. His 3 path speech that he made often, which to this day I still do not understand why he did that. I can go on and on, but you get the point. These are all indeed facts that either came out of the company or were spoken by JZ. At the same time, it seemingly led to investor confusion, even leaving many analysts on the street who follow the company scratching their heads. Wall Street is a brutal place, and a company could have the cure for cancer, war, and hunger but if they mess with The Street in the wrong way the company could get crushed. It feels that Wall Street is STILL FURIOUS at JZ for something, and for this to turn around, the company doesn't need to do anything more on the business side. They are executing brilliantly. But there is anger somewhere, and it sure feels like that anger is directed at JZ. Thoughts?
Yes you are 100% correct. I have seen Wall St crush great companies many times.. I feel in the begining Joe Z maybe said too much and Now he is saying too little.. I'm with you all the way in terms of why the stock is trading this way. Wall St can be brutal by all means and they are making AMRN pay in the short term. Big picture though, this should all change with ANCHOR PDUFA and Combo. There was a 1 1/2 yr disconnect from when the ANCHOR data came out to when the filed sNDA for ANCHOR. Now all focus is on just the MARINE mkt.
I def feel that JOE Z should say something. They are aware that Wall street is killing the stock but they can't sit back and just let it happen.. I know PDUFA etc are only a few weeks away but they need to address whats happening NOW... IT's over the top and bc they may have said too uch early on they need to stop the bleeding that they started back then...
All in all I think we will be ok once we get into late APril into the summer.
I'm not Harvey but I'd like to address a couple of your points.
Wall Street knew there was an offer on the table and went in big assuming Joe would take it. He became the enemy when he turned it down. At that point the hedgies and the BP suiters became allies. The suiters pulled the offers, Wall Street pulled support on the bid, and the torrent of bashing from AF, AH and others began.
Nothing Joe said was untrue at the time but Wall Street made sure it became untrue. During the 60-90 exciting days we achieved several key patents. Wall Street sold the news to ensure he was left with mud on his face. NCE "much ado about nothing" is true, but wall street makes it an issue, again for the sole purpose of smearing mud on his face.
Joe's mistake was not taking the offer. He cost some big players money by not taking the deal and now they're intent on making him pay. They are "calling his bluff" as they see it. Joe's no liar. In his mind he acted in the interest of the shareholders. Had he sold at $20 there would be a throng of investors crying foul because he gave away a 10+ bagger for a double.
As an investor I have to trust my DD and believe that Vascepa will meet a huge market need. The market need will result in an unrelenting tidal wave of growth that Wall Street won't be able to hold back. Despite current weakness and all the doubts planted by the hired hands who are no doubt all over this message board... I believe AMRN will succeed. They will become profitable in 2014. Assuming the company doesn't take an offer, this will be a 10 bagger from here for those who are patient. That is what I believe, and I will hold my shares until this plays out.