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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • supradsw supradsw May 20, 2013 7:16 AM Flag

    NRx's are encouraging.

    Number of new scripts for the week just under 2300. A slight decrease from last week, but still the 2nd highest ever ofcourse, while increased refills still made total scripts a 1.5% increase over last week. Still no week with overall decrease,, after 15 weeks.
    What would be interesting to know is the average number of months a patient uses Vascepa. 3 months, 6 months, 1 year? Just 2 or 3 thousand new scripts/week can grow a substantial business over time. My suspicion is that many patients stay on the drug for a prolonged period of time, due to the nature of the condition. This also means that a slow ramp is in the nature of the beast, patients on Lovaza probably have a long "realtionship" witht the drug, and it will take some time to convert.
    With an average of say 3700 scripts/week * 184 dollars (and discounts, but there is also underreporting), revenue for Q2 would be 8,885 MUsd, which is just about on track with analyst estimates. I'd ofcourse have hoped for a bigger jump in scripts this month, but we are definetly on track with some weeks higher, and some lower than expected. Very curious to see this weeks IMS numbers.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Don't even try...
      Here I see people talking of a 17% steady increase AND still at 17% for ever and ever....
      They neither got to think that a steady growth is impossible for any drug..... and that weeks are made of 5 days to write down prescriptions, so - carelessly the trend - there can be shifts in the amount of weekly scripts.
      In the case of an avg amount of... call it "10"...... we can have "7" for one week and "13" for the week after.
      And we already seen it.
      One week the goats started saying "No sales.... no scripts"
      The week after "Huuuuge scripts, tadamoon"...

      I really think most do search for a lot of infos on the web... but they don't try to elaborate all those infos.

    • wow revenues of almost 9 million !!! that is why AMRN is a $7 stock.... It imo will never be more than a few hundred million dollar drug... If you buy now over 7 you are a fool....

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