% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • supradsw supradsw Jun 13, 2013 10:11 AM Flag

    Vascepa market share..

    How much market share does Vascepa "really" have at this moment?
    Strange question? What we are seeing is that Vascepa is at 3500'ish underreported scripts at the moment. But also that the refills has just recently started to accumulate. Very late in the curve.
    This tells me that most scripts probably are 3 month scripts. And thus the accumulation will come later out on the curve. So far most of the scripts we have seen are new scripts, and refills just starting to add up fast.
    A conclusion from this could be, that we already have taken a larger market share than we "think". Even if new scripts stays steady, 2000-2500 new users/week would still add to a significant number if lets say a user on average stays on the drug for 6 months.
    Assuming 2000 new scripts/week and avg. use of 6 months, that equals about 115Million USD of revenue. For only 2000 NRx's which we surpassed only after 3 months.
    Thoughts? Correct way of thinkning? Any input as to how long avg. use in this indication is? I realize many people stay on treatment for a very long time, but some also drop out.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

    SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Most Replied Expand all replies
    • What is the cost per script for say, a month or 3 month period?
      Seems to me that 3600 scripts per week is pretty low, I know we are only 5 months from launch but still, why are the 420,000/month of Lovaza which even increased from March 382000??? I just don't get it. Vascepa should be stealing Lovaza share at this point, something is not right...I don't see Lovaza losing ANY prescriptions. Granted they are not growing but they are not losing any either....

      • 2 Replies to arnold_for_california
      • Let me try to answer your concerns.

        The cost, per RX, is about $120 monthly.

        Lovaza's 420,000 and 382,00 monthly are just indifferent.

        In consideration of V's low scrip (running at about 17,000 monthly) currently, I believe that many potential takers are waiting for Tier 2 getting thro (a few months later) to pay $25 monthly. Anyway, V is for improving health, not for treating life-threatening diseases. So, no hurry.

      • afc this is something I pointed out to a lot of longs who basically said I was crazy but it's turning out I was right doc's are not just going to immediately switch from L to V they don't have the knowledge that some of us longs do about the huge benefits of V over L they have to be educated and actually see it for themselves(blood work) it's going to be a process. This is why we need BP to hurry this process along or better yet just sell it to them somebody is going to make a ton off V one way or the other hopefully some of that will filter down into our pockets!

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Month Lovaza Vascepa
      Jan/13 419,518 333
      Feb/13 406,731 2,853
      Mar/13 382,405 6,491
      Apr/13 426,915 10,695
      May/13 420,018 14,545

      Lovaza's TRX peaked, 103,464, in Dec, 2012 (launched in 2005).

      Obviously, Vascepa is in an exponentially growth phase and Lovaza is flat toward a noise-diving.

    • V's market share are just in the exponential phase. Need 3-5 years to reach the peak. With MARIN only, the peak TRX would be around 100,000 weekly. Adding ANCHOR, the peak would be about 300,000 weekly. RUDUCE-IT could achieve 1M weekly (i.e., about 1% American on V).

      A long way to go.

    • Underreported scripts on MARINE indication. That's a good point. And I think V can actually steal most of patients from Lovaza.

      That being sad, the big question is: does the ANCHOR potential market really.... ehm... exist? I'm starting to wonder.
      It's a huge and existing population. But main question is: will they pay for a drug that can be avoided just eating less fat foods?
      I guess it's only because of a louzy price action that I wonder that..... but it's better than just answering to bash.ers. So I'd like to hear more from longs.
      Even from Akanz which maybe I offended before.

      • 3 Replies to longfcell
      • Longfcell: All I can say from my own experience is that old habits are hard to break. When My doctor said I needed to change my diet & exercise, I said to myself...right?? I still like my red meat, sausage, bacon, milk on Frosted Flakes, half & half if I can get it. I enjoy my barbeque, drinking cervezas, taking naps. I'm a pretty average guy...really. Now with the "Bacon Reality shows" playing on the Food Channel, I don't believe Americans can or will change their habits overnight. I have no doubts about the efficacy of the Anchor population and its dire need for this drug. It's like saying, darn if we stop making and selling cigarettes maybe people will stop smoking and we'll have no more lung cancer. When I see my PCP next time, I'll ask for some Vascepa. It sounds like it helps with mood swings and I used to take Prozac. Besides, I'd love to lower my cholesterol but without all this dieting and exercise....:D)

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • long very good point here are my thoughts on ANCHOR we need help the worst possible scenario at this point is to continue to GIA with ANCHOR Joe needs to sell or partner up with BP in order for V to reach maximum potential with ANCHOR doc's PCP's especially need to be attacked in large numbers and frequency and we also need DTC ads this market can be tapped and be a huge revenue driver but it needs to be done correctly and little AMRN cannot do this alone. We are seeing the results first hand this drug WORKS BIG TIME and can be just as beneficial to the patient with trigs at 550 as the patient with trigs at 450 etc...

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • bull runner shared this pie chart comparing market share of vascepa, lovaza and niaspan.

    • supra I posted last week that we were at a run rate of around 2k per week on refills given the current number of patients on V to date. We are chasing that figure but catching up quiclkly as evidence of over 1300 refills last week and of course the number will continue to rise as we add new patients week over week. V is a maintenance drug so dropoffs will be very low I want to say almost insignificant. I for one would like to see the new rx's start rise but even if we stay in the 2k range refills will start growing into a monster by my caclulations we will be at an 8k run rate on refills just 3 months from now if we just continue on the 2k new script trend if this figure were to rise significantly look out!!!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

3.16+0.10(+3.27%)Oct 20 4:00 PMEDT