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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • frenzychess frenzychess Jul 23, 2013 5:29 AM Flag

    What Is Wall Street Thinking Here?

    The MARINE market is where Lovaza lives with $1B in sales, it's where Niaspan exists with approximately another billion in sales just last year. People might be concerned about Epanova but it's going to be very late to the party along with side effects while being less efficacious. Generics are still a ways off, but when they come they'll raise LDL-C along with an AFIB warning. Just because 275 sales reps from a small biotech cannot generate huge sales in 6 months against GSK and ABT, (playing dirty probably), doesn't mean Vascepa won't soon generate huge sales. Vascepa is much better than Lovaza and Niaspan and will dominate the market with perhaps $2B in sales for just MARINE in the US and abroad, (accounting for some level of off label use), and that's a doggone conservative number. That is, if a BP were to take over the reigns soon. That is the situation as it exists right now without any further discussion, that is the state of affairs. Pfizer could have sales at $100M a quarter by the end of this year if they took over tomorrow. MARINE type potential is easily worth a $5B price tag today with BP using their marketing might. What is Wall Street thinking? MARINE isn't really built into the stock price here, much less ANCHOR, REDUCE-IT and combo's as far as the eye can see. The problem is, AMRN isn't selling cheap and WS knows that. So, because AMRN might be worth $5B today and BP isn't going to pay over a 100% premium for anything, WS figures the company should be punished due to that "uncertainty", when letting her run would make them hundreds of millions more than the pocket change they're collecting at these levels.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Couldn't have said things better frenzy. Vascepa in the hands of a marketing monster like any of those stated will do well. All they have to do is cite the numbers and less side effects. Gia is tough because its like trying to sell your own record without a label. You need the muscle of these big pharmas unfortunately. Otherwise, we can expect small inroads. I'm sure that the big pharma has the power to suppress the stock but what worries me is if Joe Z holds out for too long, Amrn will have to dilute more. It's not cheap to Gia.

    • Well said, frenzy.

      WS and shorts are using the uncertainties around the NCE decision and ANCHOR approval to depress the price. All of these will be cleared and forgotten after ADCOM and PDUFA. We just need a little more patience.

    • Frenzy they are making more money betting against armn. The same thing is going on with Arna currently. The difference with Arna is it is all about scripts and if they sell the drug the share price will go up. The hedgefunds and shorts have to much ammo right now and can keep the pps down.

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