The PPS for AMRN is so low and the asking price is so high that no self respecting BP would ever consider offering what JZ is asking, around $30 a share. BP is apparently waiting for the ANCHOR decision for some "certainty" and then supposedly they can offer a $25-$30 BO offer. Except that right around then AMRN will be revealing their combo data with Lipitor and likely will have the stunning lipid profiles to back up the proof of concept. The $25-$30 price won't be acceptable then, it'll be several multiples higher and no self respecting BP is going to consider what JZ is asking. So, it's either buy now and assume whatever little risk still exists, or never. Looks like never. Also, not considered in any discussion of a possible BO is that now is the only time any relatively smaller BP has any chance at a coup. When ANCHOR goes through there will be nearly a full year of clinical data, (and as we know V improves profiles and lives exponentially as it goes along a time line), and only the largest BP's will be able to afford what is likely to be a stampede into the shares. Epanova, ISIS-APOCIIIRX, CaPre, etc... have all been shown to be weak competitors, the truth is out there. AMRN is worth a fortune and waiting for them to prove it only increases the price to where AMRN itself will become the BP.
Assuming Anchor approval (Which is extremely likely) you are so right. I hope they don't sell at this point and wish they had started going it alone a year earlier! Very few people thought they could pull it off, hence the big drop in price. Excellent post Frenzy! Should be required reading for every AMRN investor IMHO!!!!!!
Yep, the disconnect between what would be offered and JZ's asking price is gapingly large that AMRN is being FORCED into making horrible, shareholder value crushing decisions. Instead of taking what they can get ($12) they would rather take destructive actions. Things such as the horrible $100m loan, GIA marine, and diluting the stock at multi-year lows. All three of these decisions have destroyed shareholder value and have ultimately LOWERED value of the compnay. All because JZ is greedy and wouldn't take what he could get last year. And now GIA anchor is coming, which will further erode any value shareholders have left.
Hey PK, give it a bit of time, Vascepa's profile is amazing, someday Vascepa will dominate the airwaves. The $100M loan was due to unexpected NCE delays and the lack of a quick BO, (AMRN like the rest of us has no idea when the FDA is going to move on this decision). The recent secondary was done at a time when shares were precipitously close to breaking a major downtrend line. Without a BO or partner, financing was inevitable at some point and they relented again due to the FDA delays on NCE. This NCE thing is so ingrained in WS as the reason to suppress shares it's ridiculous. You simply cannot blame management for the FDA's delays and the markets reaction. Also, if the PPS moves up to $20 by ANCHOR do you say management has made the wrong decisions? Unlike you and several others I've read, I do not believe management has done anything wrong.