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Amarin Corporation plc Message Board

  • frenzychess frenzychess Sep 18, 2013 3:40 AM Flag

    Big Myth

    Some say: "if the ANCHOR indication isn't approved then Amarin is in big troube". That is a myth. Vascepa is outpacing some pretty big blockbusters at 10 months. That is with MARINE alone which is about 3.8 million patients in the very high triglyceride category. With that market alone, Vascepa is on pace to have a $1B year in 2017, (beating Xaralto at this point in time in its launch), that's based on fact. For any other company that's about a $3-$5 billion to buy out, without the extra market that's 10X the size. It looks like Vascepa helps hemodialysis patients far more than other treatments for heart disease, including Lovaza which comes in a distant second in the same population. That alone is about 350 thousand patients that should all be taking Vascepa today and doctors will get that choice even without ANCHOR. Insurance will open up far more to Vascepa next year, even with generics around. Lovaza sells extensively in the ANCHOR population but it raises LDL-C and causes atrial fibrillation. That is something doctors and insurance companies want to avoid especially with new ATP 4 guidelines. Vascepa will own ANCHOR without ANCHOR approval over time. ..... Did I mention they'll get ANCHOR?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Naw they aren;t in big trouble--their MARINE launch is fine as its progressed. But it does suck some potential momo from this, limits the chances of potential deals, and increases chances of a dilution at say more depressed pricing eventually! ANCHOR is very important to this company, but i wouldn;t call it make or break!



      Sentiment: Hold

    • I believe that to day PPS down to 6.00 represent a no vote baked in already

    • frenzy...."Vascepa is on pace to have a $1B year in 2017" are willing to wait until 2017 for your profit here? Need I mention time is money. A 4 year payout is rather long for me and I suspect for many others here. Not to mention all the surprises and pitfalls that await from new and unexpected competition as well as advances in medical science, new studies, etc, etc. This is not a stagnant sector and to bet the results over 4 years is a stretch. Just look what happened over the past several weeks alone, and you want to risk 4 more years? Even in a perfect world of outcomes for Amarin, it is just a too long of a waiting period. And as swalchie's post below points out, Amarin (and us!) need ANCHOR. A delay here would bring severe pain. The debacles over NCE, GIA path, dilution, and a $100m loan that Mafia would be proud to be able to equal its rates, will seriously pale to the PPS destruction if Anchor is denied or delayed. Just think about if it is, what is next? Keep slugging along with 275 reps? Is a BP going to be willing to partner with no Anchor? or delayed? Any reliance by the FDA on the Reduce-It study means at least a 1-2 year wait for that outcome to be completed. That just about guarantees that the PPS would be stuck in the $5-$7 range for that time period because that is what the market values Amarin for the MARINE indication.

      • 1 Reply to ucamjf
      • They are on pace right now for $1B in 2017, and that's based on current sales as opposed to Xaralto. They should get there much faster though. However, I don't believe there's much chance they fail to get ANCHOR approval. The market is treating the company as if ANCHOR approval is almost certain to be nixed. Yet, companies with an SPA heading into the ADCOMM period get FDA approval 86% of the time, 97-17. The kicker is Vascepa has the safest profile of any drug. So, with an 86% of approval already, V is #1 out of 115 contestants in the most critical factor, safety. Betting on a denial as the bookies would say is, "a suckers bet", and the market is strongly leaning that way for almost no reason.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • If anchor isn't approved it is all the excuse the market and the shorts need to keep the pps down. Look at arna the same thing is going on there as well. They are far outpacing vvus in scripts sales if you look at sales at the same time of when they launched. Yet the same people that are attacking armn are painting arnas launch as slow and a failure. If anchor is delayed or for some unlikely reason isn't approved then the stock will take a big hit. The marine sales are not a failure but by no means are they a blockbuster. Right now they are enough to pay the bills at armn headquarters in dublin. WE need anchor simple as that!

      • 2 Replies to swalchie
      • If not mistaken, Arna'a re-fills were down also this past week. I see more doctor enthusiasm for Vascepa and the re-fill numbers are encouraging. However, I do agree a big hit initially, but if doctors are percsribing "L" off label, don't you think they will perscribe "V' off label? Would not surprise me if a few aren't already.
        i don't know the % of perscriptions sold by Wal-Mart, but they don't report. Our sales are higher than we think. Obviously with ANCHOR, it will be an easier row to hoe and ultimately will make the Company more valuable than without!

        Sentiment: Buy

      • I think BP is waiting for Oct as decision date. If Anchor is denied then the buyout price probably moves to 8-10 and AMRN is once again a drug development company. This is the only reason a buyout hasn't happened to date. A CEO of BP would be toast if he paid 4-6 billion when this company could be had for much less.

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