May I play devils advocate? Scripts are not progressing like everyone thought... In fact, if we continue this slow (almost no growth except last week) we will not have enough money to continue Reduce-it study.... It doesn't matter if its the safest or most effective high TG drug if you can't sell it.... Some people estimate that we need 18000 monthly scripts to pay for reduce-it... Not sure of the number myself but 7k isn;t going to cut it folks.... Now we have generic Lovaza to compete with. And lets not forget we have the worst management team ever put together... Someone compared them to clowns. I don't think Clowns are a good analogy - clowns earn their money.. Oh by the way Anchor and NCE appeals have gone NOWHERE!!!! I think there is a 50/50 shot we see $3 someday and a 50/50 shot we go bankrupt.....
During the previous 4 weeks 28,148 scripts were sold per homebuilder's posts. That exceeds the 18000 monthly that you've mentioned. Maybe you meant weekly?
We are starting with 3X the sales force this month. We should expect a significant bump as the Kowa force gets going and builds momentum.
Like every business Amerin's success is predicated on sales. If we continue to grow we'll do fine. If not, we'll die.
I haven't heard sensible arguments that support a price drop. I started buying more yesterday and will continue at yesterday's price range. While nothing is assured, It appears likely to me that:
1. Sales will continue to grow
2. Marginal costs will shrink
3. IP protection will grow and eventually will demonstrate a moat
4. Reduce It will publish initial and final results. I expect them to demonstrate safety and lower CV events.
5. Anchor and NCE appeals will continue
It's almost as if Amarin is run by Tea Party members and therefore the Democrat controlled federal government and Press are viciously opposed to its success. But I know realistically it must be the Big Pharm money buying off key FDA and financial press personnel to block Amarin as much as possible.