The key to malls is that they have mgmt teams that keep up with the times. Over the next few years I expect the Sears and JC Penney's and Macy's to give way in the sense that they will want or desire to control anchor space in so many malls. I see them shrinking and the malls responding to the challenge by changing their big box "3-anchor" traditional approach to a multiple anchor approach. It won't be as good as the newer malls multiple anchor concept because they will not be able to spread them throughout the mall and will have to use the 3 anchor positions to house more anchors by making the big boxes smaller.... perhaps halved.
SPG up to this point has handled their capex and infill developmt very well but they are reaching the end of the road and have been growing thru acquisition the last 2 years. Their growth is in fact slowing and they no longer will be the sector leader in ffo growth..... GGP and MLS will take over from here. Its interesting that SPG is so aggressive about taking out TCO. I suspect they are trying to get TCO on the cheap inasmuch as it just completed a large developmt program that has left their balance sheet weak but by all appearances TCO was about to see some supercharged earning growth from all their new developmt.
"The key to malls is that they have management teams that keep up with the times."
Absolutely!!!!! I agree with you 100%. For various reasons, I have taken time to visit several of the malls which I have a financial interest. Location, stores, anchors, shopper observation all give some input about management. In February, I will be in Orlando, Florida, and I plan to take time to visit a mall owned by a REIT that specializes in strip shopping centers. Since the REIT owns over 300 strip shopping centers, I am curious why it has this enclosed mall. Since I have a position in this REIT, and I do not want to hype it, I will not name the REIT.