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American Science & Engineering Inc. Message Board

  • bengrahamvalueinvestor bengrahamvalueinvestor Sep 15, 2006 9:21 PM Flag

    Was that really a DOD order?

    Most of us are assuming that the $42 million ZBV order is for a branch of the DOD. What if we are wrong? What if that order was actually from DHS, the FBI or some other anti-terror branch of our govt. FYI-- The wording (as Nomad pointed out to me) is different than other DOD orders. IF I am wrong and the street is wrong, then there could be a rather large DOD order(S) still pending.

    At this point, that is a BIG "IF", but I am not quite as convinced as I was a couple of days ago that the ZBV order was from the Marines or the Airforce.

    I expect to see a Marine order (quite large--like the one we received--and probably is that $42 million order), an Airforce order $5-$15 million perhaps, and some other orders like an R&D order for a new product, a DHS order, and a port order for a gantry etc..all within the next 45-60 days.

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    • Talk is cheap. If you say "I did some checking" please provide a source for your information. Otherwise, I assume you are full of bs.

    • I did some checking....That WAS a DOD order for those ZBV's. ($42 million)

      I am still optimistic that we will see more announcements between tonight and next Friday the 6th. ASEI has a history of orders in the first week or two of October......
      (the beginning of the new fiscal year)

    • From the press reports I have been reading, the contract is to enable research to develop a better x-ray machine to detect liquids and jells. The effort is to also provide screeners multi-views of carry-ons to better identify weapons.

      If a better machine is developed, TSA may buy a test deployment. After field testing to reveal ability to withstand field enviroment pressure such as dust that was a problem with puffers, then maybe the company would get a substantial order.

      As an investment analyst, buying a stock on the development of a better machine than possibly have a large purchase 5-10 years out is simply not worth the current valuation for a company with such a limited product line and market.

      But because of the speculation - I would not short it.

      I rate it as avoid.

    • My stock service says another big order coming on Monday worth $66 million, Anyone else heard this?

    • FYI--Still now formal announcement by DOD of this contract. If we do not have an announcement by Friday, then I think we must surmise that this was not a DOD ZBV order and one MAY be coming. Those are both to BIG "IFS"!!!!

    • Hey Nomad! Here's a pice of advice for ya...

      When you answer your own posts with another alias, try waiting more than two minutes before doing so. I have told you this on NUMEROUS occasions. Either you aren't listening...or you're just plain "stoopid". You already know what I think ;)

      Once ASEI break up through that $50.00's of the the races my friend ;)

    • So why waste your time speculating (in your mind) if there is another large order coming ($30 million plus) before the end of September?

      Well, if there is, the mother and father of all short squeezes would likely ensue. We would have a very serious shot of doubling from here with that type of order. WHY? It would completely eliminate ANY of the shorts reasons to stay short AND due to the fact that 2.8 million shares were shorted as of a month ago--it is likely that shorts would panic and traders would pounce on the break out. I DON'T THINK THIS WILL HAPPEN. However, there is a distinct possibility that this could happen if we (bulls/bears/the street) are completely wrong about the source of this recent order being from the US Military.

      If we don't see an announcement from DOD by Tuesday night--look for others to start figuring this out and speculating that another order is coming (whether or not there is) .

      For anyone that is interested in this stock--bull/bear/not sure....rather than read my posts or others, or read research from the analysts.....I suggest listening and READING the transcripts of the last few conference calls. ceo Fabiano deliberately gives clues to what is really happening. His wording is very deliberate and it is much of the reason why many of us bulls did not feel the pain that you may have thought we would on the sell off from May until August.

      • 2 Replies to bengrahamvalueinvestor
      • This will help. You know they don't even post the contracts to their web site. Read A, B, C, D and E. This will make your day. Don't laugh to hard at the $45 price one annalist just set.

      • I also doubt that was a DoD order. Both DoD and DHS have been very open about orders and neither has any reason to be covert about it. In fact, both have political reasons to make it as public as possible that they are taking steps for force and country protection.

        Two obvious and devious candidates are CIA and NSA, which often operate under the euphonism "the government". A third might also be the National Reconnaisance Office (NRO) which has satellite communications stations around the world.

        Another possibility that strikes me is the Department of Energy which may have that many places where they have nuclear material stored.

        I'm waiting for congressional pressure on private industry to start installing them at entrances to chemical plants, LNG storage facilities, refineries, and nuclear power plants.

    • >>>Most of us are assuming that the $42 million ZBV order is for a branch of the DOD. What if we are wrong?<<<

      Funny you should say that. I was thinking the same thing. I follow this site every day and I never saw this latest contract in there.

      In the past, every other contract was announced on this site prior to the company issuing an announcement.

      • 1 Reply to elitecrete1
      • Mr fabiano never said they were both "DOD" orders. He is quoted below.

        Mr. Fabiano, AS&E's President and Chief Executive Officer, stated that "Although they have been delayed several weeks longer than we anticipated, we have recently been informed that we can expect two very significant ***government*** contracts as early as next week, but in all likelihood no later than the end of the current quarter. Until such formal receipt of these orders, we cannot comment upon their specific nature or magnitude, but, as of today, we are comfortable reporting on these expectations with a high level of certainty, barring any unforeseen occurrence..."

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