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American Science & Engineering Inc. Message Board

  • luckyone581 luckyone581 Nov 12, 2012 4:28 AM Flag

    ASEI Chart Evaluation & Buy Mention


    ASEI is a stock that had been in a weekly downtrend from Feb11 to May12 when the stock dropped from 94.90 to 46.30. Nonetheless, since May the stock has been in a mid-term uptrend and on September 18th the stock was able to break above both the 50-week and 200-day MA's, currently at 63.60 and 62.50 respectively, suggesting that the downtrend has been broken and that the stock is now trading sideways with a decent chance it will be moving higher for the short-term.

    Since the break of the MA's ASEI has been trading sideways but generally staying above the MA lines with only 1 exception in late October when the stock got below the lines for a week or two. Nonetheless, since that dip the stock has again gotten above those lines in spite of the weakness seen in the indexes during the past 6 weeks and still closed at the 200-day MA, but below the 50-week MA, on Friday, likely because of the big drop seen in the indexes this past week.

    ASEI closed on the lows of the day/week on Friday and it is likely that once again the stock will trade below the MA's this coming week as further weakness is expected at the beginning of the week. The stock is likely on its way to test the October low at 59.75 before heading higher, if and when the indexes don't break down and do stage a rally.

    The fact ASEI has been generally staying above the MA's during the past 8 weeks in spite of the fact that during that period of time the indexes have been falling suggests the traders are mostly interested in being buyers of dips at this time.

    As far as support is concerned, ASEI is showing multiple lows on the 60-minute chart at 62.30 and it is highly likely that level will be broken. Further but minor support is found at 62.19 and then again at 61.57, and strong support is found at the $60 demilitarized zone (60.30-59.70). The 60-minute chart does show a bit of congestion around the 61.50 level so that will be the desired entry point.

    As far as resistance is concerned, Friday's high at 63.56 is the first level where some selling might be seen, especially since it is also where the 50-week MA is located. In fact, the probabilities favor ASEI trading this coming week between 61.50 and 63.60. Nonetheless, the resistance at that level is "only from" the MA line as there is no other previous resistance there. Next resistance is found at 65.60 but that resistance is considered minor. Stronger resistance is found at the highs seen a week ago Wednesday and then again last Monday between 66.22 and 66.42. Resistance is decent to perhaps strong at the 6-month high seen in September at 69.28. The $70 level must be considered psychological resistance, especially since the stock has traded up to or down to that area on 6 different occasions during the past 6 years. It must be mentioned that the 200-week MA is currently at 71.50 and there is a decent possibility that if the stock gets moving once again to the upside that the 200-week MA will be the target of the bulls.

    Purchases of ASEI between 60.00 and 61.52 and using a 59.65 stop loss and having a 71.51 objective will offer a 5-1 risk/reward ratio.

    My rating on the trade is a 3.25 (on a scale of 1-5 with 5 being the highest).

    My name is Tony and I am a retired chartist. I have been trading for over 36 years. In the 80's I was a broker/trader/analyst for Merrill Lynch, Dean Witter, and Pru-Bache.

    I offer an inexpensive chart evaluation service on stocks of your choice through membership to my newsletter and message board.

    “When or where do I get in? When or where do I get out? What is the trend for the next week? For the next 3 months? Where are the strong buyers and where are the strong sellers (based on past action)? What is the risk/reward ratio on my trade (based on chart objectives)? What looks good right now (chart-wise)?”

    These are some of the questions that I try to answer through chart evaluation.

    I offer a monthly service that includes a weekly newsletter with chart evaluations on 4 stocks that I believe have attractive chart patterns and good risk/reward ratios as well as 1 chart evaluation per week on a stock of your choice. Evaluations include entry and stop loss points as well as likely objectives. The service also includes membership to a message board where daily updates on all stocks and stock indexes are given. A 2-week Trial at no charge is offered.

    If you are interested in learning more about the service, click on my nick and get the website address from the profile area.

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    • to luckyone581:

      why would you waste all that info. on a stock that averages 28,000 shares on a normal daily volume? no one gives a rats #$%$ about asei. if fact, one could almost controll this stock with it's low volume and it has been done over the years. the only really good thing about asei is it's dividend which is great in todays age.
      of course, I can say all this because i bought the stock in 1993 at 4.00 a share-yes, 4.00 a share. my broker recommended it and this time i listened to him.
      maybe you did get some subscribers to your newsletter with this detailed info. but you would probably be better off with a stock that has a much better following.

37.05+0.06(+0.16%)Sep 9 4:00 PMEDT