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Vipshop Holdings Limited Message Board

  • onestockallsports onestockallsports Aug 17, 2013 3:21 PM Flag

    Odds of going to 55 before years end.

    Previous earnings stock went from 35 to 38 then down to 25. This time a mad run to 50 now down to 39. There's not many companies growing this fast. Basehits,what do you think the odds are that this stock will go to 55 before the end of the year?

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    • I am looking at the price of $60 at the moment just a month after the original message and realize how futile all these attempts to predict the price. Ride the trend...

    • chrisofmel Sep 18, 2013 5:15 PM Flag


    • It's getting closer

    • My opinion is based purely on the chart. You can draw the long term channel. The price action usually happens inside this channel when it hits upper boundary it bounces and goes lower. When it hits lower boundary the stock bounces and goes higher. This is how algos function. They keep the stocks inside long term channel. But certain events can overpower algos and push the price action outside.

      The stock fell through the lower boundary during June 20's market sell off. Then reversed and went back inside and hit the upper boundary at around $46.27 on August 6. That was a good sell point in my books as stocks usually start basing and go lower from there. But for some reason the stock broke out of its long term channel and went higher. It was doomed for a sell off pretty much at these levels unless they reported incredible results which nobody could imagine. Since the results were as expected the stock tanked.

      But what is important the algos intercepted the free fall and caught VIPS exactly at the lower long term boundary. This is very constructive action. Based on these observations I estimate that the highest legit price by December is in the range of $63-$65. The lowest legit price will be around $50 by Dec.

      Of course there can be events which can push the stock outside its long term trend which I cannot foresee. But excluding unforeseen circumstances the price should be between $50 and $65 by December.

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