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  • tolickorclick tolickorclick Feb 13, 2013 9:18 PM Flag

    Before you Panic Sell - Listen to the Call - Read The Metrics

    I went back and listened to the 3rd Quarter Call. Management mentioned that Amazon had just rolled out a new USPS postage solution - permit mail? Management didn't know how much it would impact the quarter, but now we now it slowed down the revenue growth rate to a "paltry" 13.86% YOY and 10.47% QOQ.

    Can't blame Amazon - they're just offering their customers another competitive USPS shipping option. Competition is good - look what the lack of it did to the USPS and PBI over time. Can't blame STMP either, management reported what they knew in the 3rd quarter, and updated their revenue guidance based on the results of the change at Amazon over the 4th quarter. Up front all the way.

    As a whole this company is still rock solid and growing earnings at a very respectable rate. EPS growth 21.43% YOY, 34.29% QOQ. Did you see that jump in postage printed? Over 1 Billion in postage printed in '12 with over $400K of that in Q4 '12, a 90+% increase over Q4 '11 - that's nuts.

    Revenue comes from new customers. STMP set customer acquisition records and lowered both the churn rate and the cost to acquire a customer substantially in Q4.

    It in aint easy being a Long - buy why make it easy to be a short?

    Now if you'll excuse me I've got some crow to eat - fig, pass the mustard.


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • Literally I LOL'd reading your post. Sure... businesses LOVE IT when Amazon enters their core business. Nothing like that healthy competition to pop growth and help margins. Oh that's some funny stuff. Lickin 'n clickin just might make ya lose it.

      • 1 Reply to thermo_bea
      • You got lucky.

        Revenue missed slightly because the analysts finally raised the bar to where it should be. This was a great quarter with a revenue blip because the growth of revenue through Amazon saw some slippage due to their deal with the USPS to offer "permit mail". Guessing it's similar to what the USPS offers on their website for printing postage labels - good for users who don't need the expanded service offering STMP provides for high volume shippers.

        If you don't think competition is good for business - you may want to take a hard look at what monopoly power does to organizations and people over the long run. I keep telling ya fig - we just aren't the brightest bulbs in the universe - that kind of power and control always comes back to bite the holder.

        You finally won a hand - good for you. Now shuffle up and deal - you've still got a ton of shares to cover - it remains to be seen how that's gonna work out.

        "Lose it?"...naw - it's just money figment...I'd be more upset if my dog got sick.


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