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James River Coal Şirketi Message Board

  • cadmium_telluride cadmium_telluride Apr 9, 2012 7:39 PM Flag

    Bullish - US Coal Production Down: -16.2%

    According to EIA. US weekly coal production is DOWN 16.2% from the same week last year:

    This 16.2% production cut is more than enough to take care of any perceived weaker US coal demand and push price higher just on its own.

    And we have international demands to boost.

    Coal sector is extremely bullish here.

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    • Another week and another big coal production down:

    • China's IMPORTS, not in terms of dollars, but in terms of tonnage of WEIGHT, is UP 17.6% for Q1, 2012, compare with same quarter last year.

      That's 17.6% more toonages of imports of coal, iron ore, grains and other raw materials. The actual number is 804.10 MILLION TONS. How much out of that number is coal? Must be a huge number!

    • The coal futures market is clearly anticipate a much higher coal price in the next few month. Same is the natural gas futures market. Contracts just a few months in the future is much higher.

      The US coal sector will provide best investment return for 2012 if you get in NOW.

      • 1 Reply to cadmium_telluride
      • Futures contracts are virtually ALWAYS higher the further out you go than current you idiot, and when they are not it is considered a major backwardation anomaly!

        Gee, the sun is shining, must mean gas and coal are going higher.

        Gee, the sun is not shining, must mean gas and coal are going higher.

        What a brain dead moron.

        Mindless, delusional, cheerleading, johnny one note, investment ignorant, global economy ignorant, mental patient losing your entire investment account over and over and over and over...and over.

        Oh, and you also of course AS ALWAYS Have the latest China export / import number implications completely backwards. They indicate ERODING INTERNAL GROWTH in CHina you numnut, which is an ominous sign for someone hanging their entire hat on dreamy hopes for massive exports of coal to china.

        Worst investor with the worst timing and the wordt analysis, of ALL TIME

    • Here are the weekly coal production data from EIA:

      The 2011 weekly coal production volumes:
      20,870,398 20,747,095 21,143,047 21,470,654 20,454,544 20,708,482 21,624,475 21,788,218 21,761,190 21,050,066 21,063,261 20,926,880 21,462,644

      The 2012 weekly coal production volumes:
      21,250,617 21,106,430 20,993,323 20,087,351 19,795,556 20,061,644 19,712,955 19,913,300 19,569,273 19,160,859 18,798,501 18,418,122 18,214,519

      The 2012 week coal production percentage change from same week in 2011:
      +1.822% +1.732% -0.708% -6.443% -3.222% -3.124% -8.840 -8.605% -10.073% -8.975% -10.752% -11.988% -15.134%

      Clearly from the beginning of the year when the weekly coal production was even higher than 2011, once producers realize the winter was warmer and demand was weaker, they promptly adjusted coal production down, now down to 16% lower than same week in 2011.

      • 1 Reply to cadmium_telluride
      • Gee I guess you forgot to post the numbers that show that coal demand was down a lot more than coal production.

        And I guess you also forgot to show the numbers that even though coal demand for electrical generation was down 21%, natural gas demand for electrical generation went way up!

        I guess you forget just about everything that doesn't fit your fantasies, and just post whatever snippet of 'little' fact and knowledge allows you to wweave your tales of deception.

        But the only one self deceived is you. Destined to lose all your money in a dying and shrinking energy source, whose only hope is export market that will be very expensive to accomodate compared to domestic.

    • Once again you take one isolated bit of info, 'production down' and you cheerlead around it because you have no clue what it really means.

      Why do you think production is down? Oh gee, could it be because coal consumption is WAY down even more??? Indeed, electricity generation from coal is down 21% year over year! Your own quoted production drop numbers are HORRIBLE for a coal investor because they are less than the CONSUMPTION drop.

      From a recent article on investing in Utilities, we have this, which not only outlines the shift away from coal, but also the huge drop in consumption of coal, year over year.

      "In recent years, utilities have gotten cheaper relative to the broad market. They make up 3.4% of the S&P 500's market value today, versus 4.4% three years ago.

      Over the long term, profit margins for the utility sector are likely to recover, says Douglas Simmons, a portfolio manager at Fidelity Investments, as more power production SHIFTS FROM COAL TO NATURAL GAS, pushing costs lower.

      Electricity generation from coal WAS DOWN 21% year over year in December, the latest month for which data are available, according to the Energy Department. Electricity generated from natural gas was up 12% over that period. Coal's share of U.S. power output fell below 40% in November and December, a level unseen since March 1978.

      And destined to keep on falling.

      • 1 Reply to letxequalx03
      • I would submit that you don't know and neither do I. In fact no one actually knows and that's just it. A truely textbook uncertainty was injected into the market (coal) and there is little to clarify the situation. Maybe if Papa Doc Barack simply repeated his signature extraconstitutional edicts and e.o.'s he could declare coal fired plants a dangerous threat to American public health and deem them to close in say 5 years. That would engender sufficient clarity for the market to react in a market oriented fashion.

    • This US production cut alone is more than enough to push US coal price much higher.

      China's coal import in the first two months of 2012 is up 88.7% from the same period last year. That's HUGE. It's not 8.87%, but 88.7%, almost a double!!!

      Now please sell today at $4-ish so you can buy back the same shares six months later for $40 per share. Go ahead!

    • JRCC is selling near an all-time low and the coal sector is bullish?

      Double up on the meds. Or change them.

    • I agree with you, wholeheartedly, that production cuts in both coal and NG is the only way we're gonna see prices of these commodities recover over the next year. So, let's keep our fingers crossed. The boom in shale gas drilling sure isn't helping to shore up NG prices, however. I think it's gonna be a few months before we see NG, and coal, dink the bottom.