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  • imdaman20072002 imdaman20072002 Sep 13, 2009 1:40 PM Flag

    0,30 - 0,35 $ eps in 2009. 0,40 $ eps in 2010

    You can make judgements on 2010 now but I see things much differently next year.

    Bromine prices should contine to firm as pricing power becomes easier. Lets assume 2000/ton which is still less than 2008 levels. Margins will be also a couple basis points higher through efficiencies

    Also, figure 1-2 acquisitions of which I fully expect one to be largely integrated into 2010.

    The Chemical line will expand to a second line by 2nd half of 2010 with high margin ag line.

    We could still hit .40 cents next year but a couple pennies less and this gem is still way undervalued.

    Anyone care to value the rights to nat resources of bromine/crude salt at 1900/ton that that have been secured and value on a DCF value like a gold mining company and you can see that as an asset value play this would be off the charts.

    This will become more evident as the consolidation process wraps up and GFRE is the leader in the segment in China

    IMDAMAN

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    • the secret of success for gfre is that the domestic demand in china only outpaces the supply. so gfre is not in need to find customers abroad.

      do not also underestimate the crude salt resources of gfre. these resources have been growing so rapidly lately after the last 2 acquisitions and the crude salt also offers a very high profit margin.

      this will make gfre keep its growth yoy over 100 %.

      • 1 Reply to janudecem
      • according to the latest pr of GFRE , the bromine price will hit 2500 $/ton by the end of the year. my research shows that this will be a record price for bromine.


        " In September 2009, bromine prices reached $1,980 per metric ton, demonstrating an 18% increase from the lowest price of $1,680 per metric ton recorded at the beginning of 2009.

        "We are observing several trends indicating further increases in China's bromine prices during the remainder of 2009. First, industries utilizing bromine demonstrate strong demand, while supply remains flat. Second, as the domestically produced share of all bromine consumed in China increases, domestic producers have more pricing power. Finally, lower bromine inventory levels of domestic suppliers mean less pressure to discount prices," stated Xiaobin Liu, CEO of Gulf Resources.


        "According to a report by one Chinese chemical website ( http://www.chinachemnet.com/ ), published on September 14, 2009, bromine prices are expected to reach a record high level in the fourth quarter of 2009." It is believed that these favorable factors will contribute to the net profit of the Company.