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Mercer International Inc. Message Board

  • peter_norths_proctologist peter_norths_proctologist Apr 29, 2011 3:27 PM Flag

    This stock was $12.18 day before last earnings came out

    It's as if the great earnings report of Q4 never even happened. Kind of odd, in this bull market. Don't you think?

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    • Not to me. This thing went up 75% in just over 2 months early in 2011, way ahead of the market. Wasn't in step with the market then and needs to rest contrary to the market now. Even with the pullback it is still 50% ahead of since the middle of January. The stock got so high it reversed right at the top trend line. Even with it pulling through the 50 day it has not sunk far enough to brake through its low trend line. Volume has been so low that even a bit of a break through the trend line doesn't indicate much and the volume would certainly be huge if people knew something. To many of the people with the big time money in this would see it coming or get tipped off if something was up. The big timers bailing would cause volume to be high to get enough money out to save themselves because they own so many shares. Volume is down and down really quite a bit. If earnings blows up it sure isn't being tipped off and the real players aren't bailing right now.

      The only thing of any concern is that the whole sector has slowed down, but it may be do to it needing a pullback. But the sector pullback would not come as a result of the Euro because so many in the sector are U.S. companies so that doesn't concern me yet. Besides I think that the percentage gains in EPS would easily belittle and consume the percentage of change that has you concerned.

      So low volume run down to start the next upswing seems a lot more logical than somebody knows something and this thing is blowing up and showing signs of problems based on it's current trends. Charts and sell volume is not even hinting at it and the stock seems to be going through a classic low volume consolidation.

    • Christ here. [Not THAT Christ.]

      There are times it's not easy holding declining shares. I've seen this happen, and it's ghastly expensive. A company is praised to the skies (MERC). New analysts join in. Expectations are raised. Meantime, the shares dive and continue to dive.

      Only thing I can think of is that earnings/costs will disappoint and a large seller knows about it. Only a large holder would have that information and we don't. Let's wait for the figures May 5.

      Could surprise us nicely with a $1.23 jump the first day after announcement. Meantime, go with God, my son. "The Falcon"

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