I like your thinking greyfox. I would put the price of oil in a tighter range, between $55-$85. I just do not see how it comes down any lower. For below $55 I would think that you have to have more oil being pumped, (a rise in supply), and calm on the world political stage. I could see one of these happening but not both. I feel that it is more likely that we get more of the same, tight supplies, and political pressures, keeping prices high.
As for the world using less oil??? Bad habits are hard to change.
darby; I NEVER go all cash.That is to much of a risk. particularly if we are about to enter a period of significant inflation. I am cautious as to the mkt rt now so I have increased cashto over 40%. If the overall mkt does not rise this week I may go to my max cash of 60%. I took a seven figure hit in the 70's in bonds which I ha purchased in the 60's. Never again. thanks to good luck I made it all back in the 90's. his time I keep in mind Rule one-"don't loose a lot an any one situation.
I'm in BTU at 12-13. And I have all my money and then some out so my remaining 6,400 shs cost me less then 0.
Of course that does not mean I want to loose the $ 350k my remaining shares are worth. But unless it goes below $45 I'm holding. I still believe the long term fund. will take this stock higher over the next 5 years because I think we will see oil at 100 before we see it at 30.JMO.
Cramer just likes the adulation. Money is no object anymore. Me, I am 100% cash. If the market falls 5% or MORE from here, I am ready to buy. If the the market goes up, and the economy seems stable, I am ready to buy. My bet is on the first scenario. Either way, I am analyzing stocks, separating the wheat from the chaffe.
Cramer also said the Fed would go overboard, but he was still recommending certain stocks. The first caller in the lightning round asked about BTU. Cramer said to buy some on Monday, then buy more a day or two later. He claims if you do that, you will buy the absolute bottom. I guess he's clairvoyant, now. I suppose if he said to go all cash, his show would be cancelled. LOL!!!
precisely .. its an ELECTION yr. and thats why , the big boys (yeah those with the yachts and blonde trophy mistresses) they are the ones who will make sure "the mkts stay on an upward course" and the "housing mkt stays propped". How will they make that happen?
by "pausing to collect more data". translation: ensuring the housing bubble lives on and grows bigger.
The commodity bubble is in early "denial" stage. Theres still 5 more stages and years and years to go ..
I turned Bearish on April 19th. The street thought Bernanke would pause on raising rates in June. The market rallied less than 2%. PATHETIC. The FED will go overboard again, like they always do. I have been 100% cash since, waiting. It's an election year and Oct. could be very bad. Waiting...for the capitulation.