Interesting analysis. I'm long a few 100 BTU and am looking for buying more, but this does give one pause.
Where do you TROLLS dig this crap out of? The garbage can? Seeking Alpha is the biggest joke of a fraud in cyberworld, just ask the MAKO bagholders who SeekingBarfa pumped for months only to get cut in half in value. Whatever SeekingBarfa puts out? Do the opposite. If I were the SEC I would have SeekingBarfa and it's writers arrested for fraud.
"Yet, looking at Peabody Energy's partials, the much lower risk is evident. It carries a significantly higher EBIT, has large retained earnings, and all in all, it doesn't look like a bankruptcy candidate by any measure." Read carefully before you post.
I guess Santos after his successful insight a couple months ago that we would have a coal crash now is trying to enlighten us on the risk value our companies carry to warn us what their probability of bankruptcy is in the next 2 years. Maybe he should do the math on Rio Tinto. In the meantime focus on how to preserve the bottom line on your portfolio and take advantage of trading opportunities so that under different circumstances when the Coal environment becomes more positive you recover quickly and make some serious money. That's why were in there every day......
I did read carefully. I found the article interesting, that's all. You should have found it interesting too. As I indicated, I'm long a few 100 BTU and am looking to increase my holding. I do think though that BTU is still going lower, because the S&P (in my opinion) is going lower, and when the tide goes out, BTU is apt to drop a bit more. PCX, now that is a different story. Lots of coal reserves, but enormous liabilities for post retirement benefits, multi-employer pension plans, etc. I suspect too that ANR will survive as well. Probably some consolidation coming in this industry. The BIG mining companies like BHP and RIO have to be considering taking over some of these coal companies.