Now ECA seems to be the one with loose lips. By stating they are making a deal that gives them part of a refinery "in the Chicago area", they have pretty much confirmed that the deal is with BP. The Whiting Indiana refinery is just over the border from Chicago, does 400k bbls/day, is set up for heavy oil. BP already has a plan to invest another 2-3 billion there to increase capacity especially for heavy oil.
Meanwhile the Marathon refinery at Robinson Illinois is 246 miles south of Chicago (it is actually much closer to St Louis and Louisville - about 150 miles from those cities). Robinson refinery is quite small (192k bbls/day)and a piece of that would not be worth nearly as much as a piece of the Whiting refinery.
I think the deal will be half interest in the Whiting refinery including the new upgrader in trade for half interest in the oil sands. The details are who pays for the refinery upgrade, who pays the capital to increase the oil sands production from current 50k bbls day to planned output of 500k bbls/day 5 years down the road. If it is a joint venture then those costs would be split and the profits would be split. There will be a lot of capital expense early on.
ECA has clearly stated that the deal gives them equity in the upgrader and the refinery - for oil sands output they really become an integrated producer with upstream and downstream components. Can't wait to see all the details that the suits are hammering out. It is all pretty complex.