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iShares Mortgage Real Estate Capped Message Board

  • algomapicker algomapicker Mar 23, 2006 3:33 PM Flag

    HELX board message {part deux}

    Re: Zacks Research Wizard & Backtesting
    by: algomapicker 03/23/06 03:13 pm
    Msg: 3307 of 3310

    It's certainly not for everybody. But to me the market is muddy waters. I like the idea of a cold steel approach. I don't need to wrap my arms around it because I won't be there very long. Although I've seen backtesting where a particular stock might be held for 2-3 months. Perhaps longer although unlikely. You can roll it over for review in 1 week, 4 week, 12 week or 24 week intervals. The 1 week rolls produced higher returns. Most of the formulas will offer up 3-5 stocks in each review. The risk is reduced with the percentage you place in anyone investment.

    I'd rather stay put with HELX. Will no doubt leave money here. But, I like that gradual climbing graph, that this type of approach can give.

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    • "shulerco"

      Thanks for the "heads up". I did not find the $8.50 mcf "number" you mentioned. I have somewhat poor eyesight so please help me by giving me the co. and complete title of the presentation so I can correct any false impression I may harbor. I will gladly post an acknowledgement of this fact if this is correct.

      I did see where HELX does have "hedge collars" at $8.16 - $14.40 mcf for 2006; however, IMO this does have a relationsip but not the only basis to their projections for 2006.

      Old watchdog

    • In the Remington Acquisition Slides Show dated 1-23-2006 the numbers used for the prospects for the deal were for $8.50 gas and $55 oil. Those figures are used throughout the presentation. Momdmm

    • Thanks Old Watchdog for your most informative posts. Pleasure to learn more than just the numbers as I lazily wait for $65.00 at 3-1-07.


    • Deep,

      I'm an optimist too. Let O&G prices get wild again and all the dynamics change. It's all abount HELX generating the Cash Flow it needs to make everything happen. IMHO I expect to see $70+ oil before we ever see below $50 again anytime soon; maybe never.
      I think I saw or heard that the HELX/REM projections are based on $55 oil and $5.50 NG prices. Don't hold me to it because I can't find the source. Real hot energy prices could make your wishes come true. Free shares at the CDIS "shelf" spin-off, Yea, I could stand that! ! !

      It's fair to say that most of us "longs" are just giddy with the 2006-07 projected Cash Flows. But just think of what would happen; most of the O&G price increases just drops right down to the Bottom Line and, my man, that's what I call "really free cash flow".

      Old Watchdog

    • thanks for posting here.....Interesting software and approach.

      That can be as close to day trading as you can get........and 80% of daytraders lose $$$.

      Good luck to you if you try it............I have consolidated my other energy holding in HELX, and now hold a truckload of it.

      Everything I have read looks good.....and I listened intently to their presentations and slide show.............didn't know about REM when I bought my 1st chunk of Cal Dive.......then the deal just got sweeter!

      These boys know WTF they are doing........and can use my money for NO problems with them!

      I rarely see opportunity in the patch like this operation.


      • 2 Replies to deepsub9
      • <<< Everything I have read looks good.....and I listened intently to their presentations and slide show.............didn't know about REM when I bought my 1st chunk of Cal Dive.......then the deal just got sweeter! >>>

        Deep, I tried listing to the Howard Weil presentation earlier theis week but was unable to find the audio set-up. I found the slide presentation, but was more interested in management's discussion and the analyst's Q&A session. Just trying to glean a few more bits of info and maybe get a better feel on the analysts' take on HELX's current situation.

        I have just about listened to every presentation, either live or archived, since the CDIS IPO. I'm still not seeing the audio portion on their archives.

        Did any of you guys listen to the Wiel audio??

        Old Watchdog

      • I'm still heavily invested in HELX. No movement yet on Zacks. I did want to throw this out there to see what kind of opinions would be drawn.

        I think the key factor is the backtesting. With some of these models you get a very good feel for what the up and down side is. I didn't view it as day trading at all, since the quickest trade would be one week. Rather a method which gives disciplined investing. You control the buying and selling completely. The emotional factor is gone. The message boards are gone. It's just you and a bottle of guiness on a thursday afternoon at closing time pulling the trigger.

        Through the different models of investing that are consistently {backtested right to the latest week} returning 50% plus annually.

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