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Phillips 66 Message Board

  • todlondon todlondon Dec 11, 2012 4:17 PM Flag

    Target is $77 a share

    PSX has substantial non-refining value on which to throw the spotlight. Importantly, whereas gasoline demand in the US has been shrinking, global chemical demand and the logistic opportunity in shale allow PSX to deliver a high multiple combination of growth AND free cash generation. Specifically, (1) we estimate that PSX can deliver around $2bn of EBITDA by 2015 from its logistics businesses (including $850m from the R&M segment). This logistics EBITDA would rise beyond 2015 as NGL prices normalize and due to underlying growth opportunities. Every additional $100m of logistics EBITDA can be worth up to $1.4/sh. (2) Our mid-cycle chemical "see through" EBITDA (including associates) is $4.4bn once the Gulf Cracker is on-stream with a DCF value of $18/sh. (3) PSX's refining business has a good share of higher multiple Mid-Con EBITDA (65%) and we expect PSX to provide an update on capturing higher volumes of cheap domestic crude across its system which could lead to EBITDA upgrades. (4) Free cash generation is strong, supportive of a higher dividend payout (raised by 25% on Friday) and continued share repurchases (an additional $1bn announced - we raise our EPS forecasts to reflect this). Our theoretical value is $77/share.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

 
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