Do you think we will see $20.00
by the 30th of October? The hole
is getting deeper and deeper. Soon
the cuts will begin. They will start with the the least valuable
people. Drivers and counter help.
Store managers may be saved if they
can do more than one job at a time.
The big office in the sky will have to cut down on off time and gym time..Just my opinon...
Carquest is hanging on a thread with all of its vendors, as for Napa they are unique because roughly 4500 of its 6000 stores are priveatly held businesses that do not report sales numbers. The numbers GPC posts are wholesale or WD sales. The numbers are not apples to apples when comparing to AAP. When you adjust the figures accordinly you can see how much marketshare GPC has. If your in it to make short term gains buy AAP, if you want stability and long term gains buy GPC. Both are going to keep putting up stong numbers, and even if GPC is flat they still have a huge dividend.
Time will tell, the key for any autopart retailer is to whatch how much debt they are holding, and how much they owe.
CarQuest is on life support and NAPA has been flat for a while now.....
Why would anyone want to compare to either one? In the last 4 weeks I've had 4 CQ stores and 2 Napa's close....in just 4 weeks....think what another few months of pain is going to do for them.
Tigger, You missed my point or I may not have stated my reasoning very well. Either way.. let me clarify and give a few examples of my logic.
When I said "store count" I wasn't talking about using that number to determine comps. Store count does not factor into the direct calculation of comps... correct! But with AAP's 3000+ stores and their lack of focus on commercial (until recently), ANY push on commercial sales would make the COMPS look great (not necessarily sales, though).. Especially since there's never been a big push on commercial sales before. When I mentioned "store count"... I was saying that when the 3000+ stores suddenly start calling commercial customers they've left to Napa and Carquest, why wouldn't their comps grow?
Let me give a math example. BP mentioned comparing AAP's commercial comps with Napa's or Carquest's. I think that's unfair. Here's why.. AAP's total commercial sales are about $4 out of every $10 (I'm being generous).. If they can increase that to $4.50, then their commercial comp is about 12.5% for the year. The guys at Carquest and Napa have around $8 of every $10 coming from commercial.. The same 50 cent increase in commercial sales nets them a 6.25% commercial comp for the year. Then folks like BP can say "Hey, AAP's commercial comps were 12.5% and Napas were 6.25%... AAP is kicking Napas arss!!!". It all sounds good for AAP until you realize that they both increased commercial SALES by the exact same 50 cents.
I think that makes sense.. or cents? :-)
One of my MANY DM's was an ex partsamerica guy who helped design MPT for AAP. Even he speaks of the disaster between partsamerica and AAP.... and made fun of how the upper level echelon misused MPT.
Every time I get a phone call from one of the overweight DM's or RVP's... I always ask the same question. What's the current payroll percentage/hours goal for this division? The usual "uhhhh, it's getting better" answer followed by either dead silence or a change of subject lets me know it's still the same system.
CJ you probably know me ----I opened new stores & markets for Nick's people in three eastern states and Left after the Parts America poisoning. I can tell you---It aint the same since. It WAS at one time the best company to work for----not it a company that's best not to work for. Someone may turn it around but it hasn't happened yet.
Awwww.... now BP.. don't get stressed. I wish I could find employees as blindly devout as you. Getting Napa's numbers from GPC is like getting CNN's numbers from Time.. Warner.... AOL... or whatever. Come on? And what are CarQuest's commercial comps again? You still haven't told us!!! I wonder why?! Do you really think I'm ignorant of Napa and GPC... Come on! You know better. I was in this business when the grocery boys had you setting up cheese planongrams.
BP, I really don't know why, but you've been pumping the grocery boys... the retail electronics boys... and everyone else who's been in charge since the Coppolas left. For the record, AAP's stock price is the same now as it was when the Coppolas left. That's a wonderful 4 year ROI isn't it?!
Please give us a reason why we should buy AAP instead of AZO, GPC, PBY or ORLY. Convince us my friend! Please don't start with bragging on the greatness of the old Best Buy team! Is AAP still trying to topple AZO as number 1??... lol... that's funny.
I'm not one for personal attacks. But just to defend myself.. your RVP's and DM's are calling me monthly to come back... not the reverse. I resigned because your superiors would not take action against my superiors who were breaking company policies.... plain and simple.
But thanks for another good debate!