Yes, you have it right. If the FTU/WB merger is approved, SunTrust's stock will not be discounted by the market because of any dillution. Also, SunTrust's stock will go up as it becomes apparent it is now a takeover target itself.If you noticed, when STI stated recently it would not raise its offer for WB, the result was STI stock went up. Prior to that, the market was concerned STI would raise its offer causing further dillution.
If this merger with FTU and WB goes through, I think the "new Wachovia" is going to lose customers in the NC and SC markets, and I think BAC will be a major beneficiary of that effect.
I also think immediately BAC will make a play for SunTrust -- this will have a similar effect that the WB/FTU merger will have in terms of reducing overlapping branches, costs, etc. The most effective mergers result from having the same number of employees handle more customers/accounts. And also BAC will be eliminating STI as a takeover target for someone else. Then I think Citigroup will buy BAC. FTU/WB will probably be bought out by Chase or a foreign bank.