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ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas Message Board

  • gotrading0706 gotrading0706 Feb 26, 2008 11:48 PM Flag

    My tech. analysis

    Daily chart looks weak. But weekly chart looks beautiful to me.
    1. 5 week MA > 10 week MA > 20 week MA. And current price is way below 5 week MA, which means the price doesn't have much room to go down before being pulled back towards 5 week MA.

    2. Weekly Bollinger band and 20 week MA are flat now, meaning the down trend on weekly basis is actually over. It's likely the bottom is 35 --- it may or may not reach this price, considering current price is already too much lower than 5 week MA.

    3. Usually at low price, high volumn means people are buying. So I believe the bottom is here or close.

    4. Looks tomorrow it will go up or stablize, but will likely pull back down again after one or a few days. When the price pulls back down to around current level (assume it will stop falling tomorrow) or even lower, if the MACD is higher than current level, good time to add more.

    This is my understanding of the chart. It has been accurate most of the time, but not every time. That's why I bought a little bit a time to average up.

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    • sorry about the repetition. My calls were up high in Jan. when DUG was at $50. now the options are very low for april calls

      • 1 Reply to westphalia1
      • I don't trade options. I am not good at timing the market. Usually the price tanks fast than it goes up. So when Oil price drops, it could go down very fast, which means DUG can spike up fast. But the problem is it takes a long time for stocks to build tops and bottoms. I have the feeling USO and UNG are on the verge to crash. But I still don't know how soon DUG can reach the point you bought for. I think DUG's price will pull back when it reaches around 10 day MACD (currently 38.27 and will be a little bit lower later), which is likely to happen next Monday or Tuesday. Maybe it's a good time to sell your April option there, and wait to buy a new option when the price goes down to 5 day MACD or below, if the daily MACD is higher than now. I use www.stockcharts.com to check MACD and the value of Moving averages.

        This is my opinion and I am not good at timing and the price doesn't always go the way I predicted. You have to make your own decision. Good Luck.

    • would you sell april '08 45 and 46 calls right now? I bought in january when DUG was $50. Or roll them to a lter DUG call option?

    • Would you sell April '08 45 and 46 calls right now? Or roll them to a later call option? DUG was at $50 when i bought them in january '08

 
DUG
47.68-0.27(-0.56%)Jul 22 4:00 PMEDT