Brad, sooner or later you are gonna be right and the dollar will need to be shorted, but now that China is slowing, commodities will fall and the carry trade will unwind making people that shorted the dollar have to cover. This rise may very well match the yuans rise and not require china to revalue the yuan. The Inflation in china is bad for us, but may further slow them to not want to raise the price of their goods and we may see a small net change in product pricing here plus the drop in commodities is also deflationary. We may not needto raise rates to get a stronger dollar. Besides Europe is hosed, Germany may be fine, but the rest are hosed. India overheated and now is coming down and Japan is dead while canada and Australia are gonna hurt from lower commodities.
You are going to be right sooner or later, but I think it is later, like maybe April.
There are serious structural problems with the US economy. Due to the artificial propped up numbers that are a result of government stimulus people are under the fantasy that we are in a recovery, when the truth of the matter is all that we are doing is going deeper and deeper into debt and when the stimulus runs its course everyone will wake up and realize that we are in worse shape then when the 2008 crisis hit because of it.
Every country that has gone down the road that we are going has always ended up destroying their currency. I have no confidence in any lasting percentage of buying power in the US dollar.
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that before Obama's first term is over that there will be a currency crisis.
The dollar will be trading in the 60s this year, when the sharp fall will start is any ones guess, but it is a guaranteed that it will happen.
I agree we are the next Argentina, our problem is we will not want to lower our standard of living by lowering wages to create a manufacturing base to compete. I agree with you thesis but I believe your timing is too near in the future.
After this dollar run, I am going short with you. In the near term, I am looking to get back into the EZA (Africa) if they get crushed with the commodities.
---uup is short term buy up to 2011 ---uups is a long term sell beginning sometime in 2011 ---this is a contrarian opinion --we have said it a million times currencies trade against one another and do you really think the euro and yen are better than the dollar with all their problems, too. ---fed will have to raise interests late this year to fight off hyper inflation (there is some inflation even right now...check out government stats)