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PowerShares DB US Dollar Bullish ETF Message Board

  • need_pr need_pr Feb 9, 2010 12:19 AM Flag

    Get ready for the HUGE pullback in UUP

    Overbought and long in the tooth = 15% correction

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    • I agree that the dollar is going to trade down (I think it topped on Friday), but what is it that tells you it will be a 15% correction?

      The retracement we've seen since late November/early December is a nearly perfect looking a-b-c counter-trend move that is almost exactly a 50% retracement of the move from mid-April down to the recent lows. This is looking like a 4th wave to me and is nice in that I see the inverse in the S&P 500 right now -- a 4th wave in an up impulse.

      • 1 Reply to techtrade5599
      • I don't see it. The dollar rally is running on weakness in the Euro which IMO is far from being over. A glance the USD Index shows resistance at 80. Should the dollar break out of this resistance then watch out, as it is clear sailing to 85. With the dollar now parallel parked at 80, dollar strength will more likely push it higher than lower.

        The broad market will rebel against a stronger dollar as will commodities near term. However longer term as someone mentioned and which I tend to agree, sovereigns will continue to support commodities as all fiat will depreciate against hard assets towards mid-year following the adjustment to the changed paradigm.

        Expect the unexpected though, in other words trade what is happening on the ground and not your predictive powers that is unless you trade against your own predictions which is probably a wiser strategy.

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