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Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. Message Board

  • katie.shuler8 katie.shuler8 Mar 14, 2013 8:19 PM Flag

    Opinions welcome

    Hello all, as I previously stated I was given shares of Oncy- my grandfather bought shares at $3.70 and more recently $3.09. I have a few questions if anyone would care to answer them.
    1) With many of the large pharmaceutical companies obviously needing promising drugs in the pipeline, if Oncy had a successful Phase III result, would you think that management would prefer being an acquisition target? The other option being that the promising results would lead to a natural increase of price and market cap.
    2) I've read that many of you have been long time shareholders (some upwards of 12 years) Is your belief in the science that is keeping you with the company or a desire to see the end result? Obviously it must have been a long ride to get to this point, and I certainly hope you get a payoff for it. I suppose a part of me realizes that the average biotech company takes quite some time to actually introduce drugs to the marketplace, I just wondered how much longer a person could reasonably expect to wait further.
    3) Lastly, I've discussed with a coworker about how the stock price seems to trend downward, maybe because major news is often few and far between. Does that suggest that more than anything, the average retail investor (like I assume many of us are) has to avoid being affected by the almost predictable downswings of the price? I've obviously never been an owner of a pharmaceutical stock before.
    Thanks for any opinions, please don't be too harsh haha

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    • I'm not going to answer your questions as posed. Dr. No gave you some good answers.

      Now, what I would suggest you do is look up the charts for the following four small biotechs on Yahoo or wherever. DNDN (5 years), MDVN(2 years), AEZS (2 years) and CLNS (2 years). The first two are fairly good examples of what can happen when a Phase III trial goes well with a company such as ONCY. The rest are what can happen to an early-stage biotech company when such a trial fails. (The case of DNDN is particularly interesting. In brief, they have a non-scientific problem. They had some fine results, and are now trying to manufacture and sell their invention... something very different from discovering a treatment, and something that they are not very good at.)

      So, that is the situation that you face. Are any of these 4 companies a good model for ONCY? I have a substantial amount of money invested in ONCY securities, enough to finance your education at all but the most expensive schools. You could draw one of two conclusions from that fact. "Gee, he must know what he is doing if he is risking all of that." A more subtle conclusion, worthy of a superior psychology or fine arts major, would be:
      He lied to himself: "The company must succeed."
      For the other fate would be very dark indeed."
      (All right, maybe not the fine arts thingy.)

      Since I am quickly approaching the length limit that Yahoo now imposes, here is an interesting (and useful?) piece of information. I place the chances that ONCY will have a moderately big success this year at roughly 50:50. A coin flip. I place the chances of eventual success somewhat higher. Now, can you trust my opinion? That could be a million dollar question... or it could be a hundred dollar question... and you don't really know which one.

      In life you often need to make a decision with incomplete or insufficient information. You will be able to find quite a bit of info about ONCY, but not enough to bring you to a "sure thing" conclusion.

      Sentiment: Buy

      • 2 Replies to falco_rules
      • DNDN's problem was two-fold. First, the money for the course of treatment was close to $100K and you had to pay up front or comment to the entire treatment upfront. Other anti-cancer treatments are a monthly cost, and can be stopped if adverse effects arise or lack of efficacy is detected. More problematic was that it was individualized treatments where cells from each and every patient must be obtained, subjected to the stimulating protocol regimen, expanded, then returned to the same patient. Consequently, costs of their drug Provenge product in terms of complexity, time and money is very high and not easily scalable. Now if the data showed excellent efficacy this difficulty might have been acceptable, but it didn't. It was quite clear to me this was a major flaw. I have never shorted a stock, but I came close to shorting DNDN after it was approved.

        As far as ONCY, what you need to keep in mind that there will be competitor drugs to what ever cancer Reolysin (hopefully for ONCY shareholders) gets approved. Reolysin is not an individualized treatment and its cost will be due with each treatment so differs from Provenge. However, it is a live virus so issues of quality control and production/stability and scale up could be negatives. It took me long time to get the hang of biotech stocks, and I am still learning, but consider the idea of apportioning your share in terms of a certain % as a core position, and the rest as trading shares. Hold the core, but sell the trading shares after good news generates a rise. When the almost inevitable decline happens during the no news periods, you can buy the same number of shares at a low price and recoup some or hopefully all your investment so that you get to play with house money.

      • Thanks for your response. I just think it is fascinating to see the opportunity cost of putting money in this stock in the belief it will appreciate versus say, a blue chip stock with a dividend of 4%. While this stock could be $20 next week, it has no such guarantee of success as much as failure. That being said, I appreciate knowing you have such a large holding in Oncy and felt compelled to reply to my post. Everyone has been very helpful, and as I stick with the stock, I hope good results occur!

    • Katie,
      Google ONCY V2 and join that Yahoo Board, to get a variety of informed opinions on Oncolytics Biotech. Fewer posts than this board, but more discussion of the science and less about daily stock price fluctuations.

    • From a tax standpoint, your grandfather displayed a great sense of gift giving. Since a person can give another individual up to $13 K without running afoul of the gift tax laws. A grandparent could at this moment give 4000 shares of ONCY for under that amount and they can skip a generation of taxes by giving it to their grandchild. Then, if this stock turns out to be the homerun that many of us believe that it will be, that could translate in hundreds of times that $13 K gift by the time the grandchild is out of college. What a grand fatherly way to set up a beloved's future economic life.

      Best of Luck Always, in college and beyond.

    • who is your grampa, is it one of the posters here?

      1) The CSO of ONCY (Matt Coffey) said in an interview about three weeks ago that ONCY does not intend shop for buyouts or partnerships until the PII data from other indications come into view. Many here believe that it is likely that panc, breast, mCRC, lung, prostate, or ovarian will yeild better results than H&N so it makes sense for them to wait for more valuable indications.

      2) it is not clear what you are asking here, but most of the value of this therapy is potentially related to it having an orthoganal mechanism of action that could potentially have synergies with many other treatments. EGRF targeted therapies have about $4 B in sales. There is no reason to expect this would be different if the efficacy is as good or better. Wait further? If the current PIII works, significant value will be realized by summer. If not, it could be 3-4 more years.

      3) the price of ONCY and other biotechs went down by a factor of 6 from 2007-2009. By 2010, most had recovered by 4 X. Last summer, the European debt crisis sent them down again by a factor of 2. ONCY went a bit lower helped by the tailwinds of short selling. The price will go up, and down, and up, and down, and up, and down ........ until good or bad news comes along. If you look at the tic you will go nuts. Determine if you think there is potential value and hold until real news. Otherwise, cash out and don't tell gramps.

      • 2 Replies to nomenome91
      • nome - "If the current PIII works, significant value will be realized by summer. If not it could be 3-4 more years.".
        Does that mean you think only the combined reo vs combined control is vital and you don't see either "mets only" or neo adjuvant use having much of a chance? Am I the only one who thinks the opposite? What am I missing?

      • Thanks for the info (as a college freshman I'm not pretending to know everything) For whatever reason I feel like this stock is much more polarizing than the average stock, I wondered how much effect an analyst like Adam Feuerstein can have on the price.
        And my grandfather has a tumor in his neck, he's very adamant that oncy is going somewhere, I think out of respect to him I'll hold onto it and hope for the best.
        Thank you again,

    • Your Grandfather is a smart man . He knows that for each form of cancer ONCY could have sales of $1 Billion.
      10 x $1 Billion = $10 Billion.
      That is more sales than lipitor had which was the biggest selling drug ever.
      With ONCYs low float that could mean $1,000/share.

      That is why the bad men are manipulating the stock price down so they can have all the shares for themselves.

      Hold onto your shares so you can buy lots of toys in the future.

      As soon as all those people taking chemo die off leaving the REO people still alive is the time
      you can have a bigger party than your 8th birthday party.

      We will all celebrate with you.

    • p.s. I know it looks like I have a spammer name, but I wrote more than 'good report' or 'valuable information' :)

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