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Oncolytics Biotech, Inc. Message Board

  • chadgdawson@gmail.com chadgdawson May 22, 2013 5:11 PM Flag

    Your target price? (No bears)

    I think oncy has potential to be a ten bagger. All the evidence is there:
    Phase 3 h&n will pass, decent management, partnership opportunities exist, easy entry into europe, no promotion, etc. Whats not to like?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • I am hoping to break even within two years. Obviously, more would be acceptable.

    • Leave Obama rhetoric. $1,000 a share is the minimum. Do you realize the cusp that we are on???

    • Not to like - no randomized P3 trial data-none; this is holding ONC back and will continue to do so while other biotechs, such as BMY, openly share all of the data for their ongoing P3 trials (with more impressive results) in the area of oncology while they continue toward approval. My target price - get out with no loss.

      Sentiment: Hold

    • The target price is always evolving for me. Over the past 10 years my needs have diminished considerably and of course the need to own anything or have money is of no value when I take my last breath. Now the focus is on being in a position that will guarantee financial independence and preserve the wealth. Having a battle last December with the Grim Reaper humbled me and made my resolve to spend more time with family and friends abundantly clear. June 6, the three month road trip begins to do that exact thing.

      My target, don’t know just yet. SHOW ME THE MONEY and when it looks like it will meet my needs, I will pull the trigger.

      Scout

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • 10 bagger? Don't be silly. with a 50 billion dollar market even if ONCY only get 25%, at a profit margin of only 50% that would be over 6 Billion profit taxed at 30% leave 4.2 Billion with a PE of only 15 that would be over 60 BILLION in market cap. that 's a 250 bagger. I can't wait. I just hope I can hold on to my 700 shares until the trial results come out.

    • There is no point to attempting to figure this out now. The only thing to think about/observe is the survival data for randomized trials. H&N should be here within 80 trading days. Good or bad, that data has to be revealed to the public shortly. In a very short time frame compared to how long we have waited, the company will either go into hibernation mode and wait for PII randomized data sets, or start to move in the direction of being valued for between 1 and 12 indications.

      For those of you that are on the fence, the stongest bit of info you know is the PFS for the mets group for both arms is 120 days. BT did a great disservice to the share holders when he said (in the written prepared remarks document for the Sept 2012 update) that you expect the mets to be harder to treat than the primary, only to correct himself at the share holder meeting and explain that others have seen this as well (Eribitux trial).

      The bottom line is this: More than half of the patients on second line RM trials have mets and these trials all have at best: PFS 60 days, OS 4.5 months, CBR 25%, ORR 10%. The tumor volume plots are very consistent with this picture in the ONCY trial. There is no suprise hiding in the control group. How do you get a combined PFS of 120 days averages against 60? I think people are going to be kicking themselves if they are out when the data comes.

      • 2 Replies to nomenome91
      • Nome, very close to my thoughts. We have been hear a very long time watching the progress and positive results. Sure the "science" is there and beyond solid. There are results upon results. AS far as the phase 3, we certainly don't expect lots of participants to be doing far better than "normal" but a couple could, a few could... but it is obvious that the whole trial combined has a lot of people doing far better than would be expected without something else improving the results in the test arm to drag the total for both arms way out. That common difference is REO. Quantum healing, prayer, miracles, grandpa's "special soup" aside, as far as confounds happen, I think, I believe it is the test arm and REO that are driving the success of this phase 3 trial as in the other phase 2 trials. We have known about the mets for years, those slides of the liver mets shrinking have been up in the presentations for years. That they split this trial a little differently to look at that from a research/scientific/ trial setting that the FDA can also look at and consider was brilliant in my opinion. That was a great management decision. They got in one SPA phase 3 trial, in effect 2 phase 3 trials. They got head and neck and the mets to look at separately. Any think the small delay isn't worth it? The mets use separately will be worth at least 10x in dollars to you what the H&N is worth, and will treat and help far more than 10X the number of patients. If they come out with significance in both aspects, a 10 bagger sale will be losing more than an additional 20 bagger. Shares bought at 3 bucks will be bought for 90 bucks. I still predict $127. a share which I will sell some of mine at for a few "recreational" toys and activities that I have been waiting for, along with travel expenses to use them. Ahhhhh Life is sweet now, but how sweet it will be as this plays out over the next couple of months, then explodes higher over the next 6 months to a year.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

      • very well put, nome. For new shareholders and the ones on the "fence" the best thing to do is read carefully the last paragraph and if you have questions ask until you understand how to look at a trial and it's goal. Then you will have an idea what to expect in monetary terms. It is annoying to read drivel by semi-literate in the science pounding fantazies to the board. You don't have to be a molecular scientist to trade the stock.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • tbandrow@mightyware.com tbandrow May 23, 2013 7:48 AM Flag

      If the PIII and other trials show that patients are living past the point when chemo must be stopped and are on REOLYSIN alone and living, then, and the company is committed to its own manufacturing, and is not intended to be a takeover target, then we could be looking at much more than a ten bagger. That's my bet. Granted, it could go the other way, but, the upside is so high it doesn't make sense to not gamble on it.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • It should fly here, but be careful with dilution. Only 44 million in cash. The dilution will happen at price about 5.

    • The last 2 year, poor management, delays delay delay, false promises.

      I hold a long position in this stock, and everyday I look for an exit.

 
ONCY
0.330.00(0.00%)Nov 4 4:00 PMEST