Jan '04 537,720
Jan 05' 589,658
What's decreasing? The rate of >increase< so far.
Earlier Hhill posted that 450,000 was required for a steady state portfolio (my construction - not his).
We are above that by about 140,000. I don't know what implication that has for the dividend.
But production numbers are increasing.
why are production numbers down?
is it because they have been closing so many branch offices? because of increasing competition? both?
why do longs continually lie about NFI and the business deterioration and missed guidance?
The relevant comparison is not month to month, but same month to year ago month.
Management layed out some scenarios for reaching 50 billion in their FBR presentaion.
Their framework was annual increase in production over year before.
Subj: Re: productions numbers are not decreasi
Date: 02/14/05 02:23 pm
only a worried long could be saying production numbers are going up, when month after month they are in decline.
the lies spread by longs on this board are unbelievable.
Except that the numbers you post show an up and down effect--your comment of "month after month in decline" is absolutely false--not a down effect.
<< NFI production is off 20% month to month. >>
Non-conforming production dropped from $950 is Q4 2002 to $912 Q1 2003, a seasonal drop during the period the industry grew by about 35% full year, and part of the year over year that the NFI portfolio grew by nearly 100%... Extrapolate based on one or two data points without filtering for seasonality, and you may draw the wrong conclusion