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Novation Companies, Inc. Message Board

  • stnkeychz stnkeychz Mar 31, 2005 9:19 AM Flag

    Today's action?

    I don't think much has changed from the prior days' postings. NFI did move to 36.40 and then some (keep forgetting about how it overshoots) to pull back. What is intersting is that after going down continually from about 2:30, it rallied at the end.

    It ran into resistance as it appriached the 37 value Vassott had noted. (It reached a high of 36.92)

    38.03 looks like the magic number for clearing the 50 SDMA today. That'll take a bigger move than we had yesterday.

    When the event happens (clearing the 50SDMA), looks like 40.30 to 41.78 could be a trading range.

    At 41.x we have the support point of the 12/1 breakout.

    44.60 ish is the resistance that has to be broken for another big run up.

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    • GRUMP:

      >>Sorry, but the T/A guys on this board don't offer much. The indicators will tell you when to buy. I suggest learning T/A better. Dopes hope.<<

      >>I do take issue with this belittling the analysis of others. I find his subtle (and not so subtle) comments insulting and unnecessary. But that's another issue and hardly worth pursuing.<<

      Unfortunately Grump's social skills are no better than his analysis skills.

    • >>I think you need to consider another kind of bashing: looking at all the available indicators & selecting only the negative ones - different ones every day based on which ones are negative. This is what I believe grump is doing.<<

      I don't care what >you think< he's doing.

      He's presented 4 indicators on a given date in a public forum. If I see that >those< indiators have gone from negative to positive, I know all I need to know.

      If Grump (or anybody else) should chose a different set of indicators and they are negative, I know what to do.

      At times different indicators, or the same (broadly defined) indicator with different parameters may be the best choice.

      >> I do call what grump does bashing - & if you don't see it, you are blind.<<

      Your way or the highway? Sorry. At least he has the interity to make different calls with the same identity. If he chose different identities, as has allegedly been the case with many on this board, you wouldn't have known the difference. You aren't a TA practioner.

      I knew I should have gotten into this. I should have left

      "Have it your way" as the response.

      >>seek TA advice for entry & exit points.<<

      He's waiting til 28.75.

      rsb has suggested waiting for a 10/20 ema crossover.

      Vassott has suggested entering now with appropriate risk management.

      DDD has suggested buy. No restrictions as to when. Just buy. That's another choice. Not one I'd recommend...

      Feel free to make your own choice of how you enter. It's your money...

    • Opps Archie Bunker

    • Why don't you get alexander_grover to find out what Grumps's Nationality and Religion is? He could then come up with some good Archie Aunker insults.

    • The stock is weak. It looks like a 5,3,5 downturn on the daily six month chart. Going long would interest me at 28.75, from the year chart, if it holds that level.

      • 3 Replies to Grump430
      • You can go long at $28.5 now. Just sell the $80 strike, 2007 LEAP put OZAMP for $51.50.

        If you are assigned, you will have paid $28.50 for the stock. If you are never assigned, you get to keep the $51.50.

        You effectively get the dividend too, because the put premiums decline as you pass through the ex div dates. (not suddenly, because the instantaneous effect is offset by the ex-divvie drop of the stock, but smoothly as time passes)

        This only costs you the 30% of the stock price you have to place in margin - $11 !!!

        Is that not a good enough deal for you?

      • >if it holds that level.<

        What does that mean? Are you going to wait for a bottome to be put in at 28.75?

        28.75 is the bottom put in at the worst of the bad news, shorting, lawsuits piling on etc. Do you think that it's likey to break the double bpottom at 32 and change?

        What are you basing it on. You were using 4 indicators yesterday which were negative. One of them (50 SDMA) is likely to go positive this week. However, if the stock goes to 28.75 no indicator you are using now will be positive. Are you willing to go long just on yield? If that's the case any rise in the divvy should generate a higher entry point for you.

        The 200 is sitting at 42.125 (roughly). A break above the 37 resistance is likely to take us there. At that point you've missed the opportunity.

        It was posted here at some length that additional certainty comes at the cost of opportunity.

        Have you looked at option/stock plays that are available to see if any net to a 28.75 entry?

      • >>>>Going long would interest me at 28.75, <<<<

        Yea me to as you know that would be a yield of nearly 19.5% on stated forwsrd dividends not counting the near certain specials.It would also mean a trailing yield of over 23%.

        And the yield would be between 25% and 27% on my expected dividends to be paid this year.

        So yea I am a long at 28.75 but I am also adding today if it breaks below 36.

    • Ooops. Left out that if Vassott disagrees with any of this, heed him. I would...