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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • uncle_margin_rules uncle_margin_rules Nov 5, 2009 9:13 AM Flag



    You have to wonder why a self-proclaimed cancer doc spends so much time on a Yahoo board of a company that doesn't appear to be very valuable to him as an 'oncologist' or as an investor.

    If you analyze the motivations, it is even stranger. He appears to know the data well, so he isn't here for information. He really seems to always want to impress his opinion on everyone else. Sort of a board bully, if you will.

    He spends lots of time (several hours daily, it appears) following the drab posts on this board. Always feeling the need to contribute, to maintain a presence. Really, hours every day. Having friends and relatives who are practicing physicians, I know they don't have that much break time between patients, so what is this 'doc' doing here so often during every day?

    Is he looking for that special news break, as if it will only be found on the Yahoo stock board? Does he anticipate the trial results will be posted here first? What could drive a so-called medical professional into this kind of time consumption during the workday?

    Are you asking yourselves these questions?

    Seriously, don't you think a cancer doctor has more fulfilling and important interactions during the day? Why would he need to come here to find fulfillment? What drives the wiz to this board every day, such that he is THE predominant poster.

    And now he has graced us with his incredible valuation model, which is total bunk. He posted 3 months ago that EXEL was fairly valued below $4.50. He has never admitted he was wrong ever, even though he was wrong about EXEL all summer long.

    And he has been posting more and more lately. He really wants everyone here to believe him: it is very important to him that he influence the board. He's even defending himself when a 'cheerleader' questions his positions. EVERY TIME. And often. It is very important he retain a lauded position on this board. At least to him, this is a very important thing. Wouldn't want someone to question him on the Yahoo board, we can't have that, how could he sleep at night...

    There is no doubt in my mind that the fake Wiz works for a hedge fund, that is actively investing in EXEL. His valuation is toilet material.

    EXEL will be sold for more than $25/share in a very short while.

    This topic is deleted.
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    • uncle, it's not personal with Ernie.... well, now it might be with you.
      You would do well to listen and look into what Ernie is saying. He provides a different perspective - based on publicly available info.. He does a LOT of research. Challenge him, but do so with facts. Otherwise listen and learn. He is definitely not out to mislead. Banter will be countered with publicly available facts. Like he says - he's hooked. Ernie shares what he finds and abuses pumpers and bashers. I don't think you are a pumper.


    • <<My stock price predictions to date have been superior to oncodoc shillboy. End of story.>>

      Well let's see if your claim stands up to scrutiny.

      Uncle on 1-Jul "Well, that about assures that TOMORROW it will close ABOVE $5." Actual 2 Jul close was $4.72.

      Uncle on 2-Jul-09 "ELN has been PUMPED, now it is being DUMPED. ELN will be below $5 by September." Wrong, but not bad. ELN briefly traded below $5 on 29 Oct, current price $6.20.

      Uncle on 5-Nov-09 "EXEL will be sold for more than $25/share in a very short while." Remains to be seen.

      Doc on 16-Jun "I'll also take small pleasure in noting that I had guessed (yes, call it a guess) that after a deal and ASCO that EXEL would be in the $4.50-$5.00 range. Had I known the PI3K deal terms I might have edged that range higher, but it appears to have been right anyway." 100% accurate. For the majority of days in June and July, EXEL traded $4.50-$5. Closed yesterday at $6.71.

      Doc on 4-Nov "That gives a total of about $900 million which with some 115 million shares (and more if the price goes up based on employee options being exercised) gives a share price between 7 and 8."

      Uncle your call on ELN wasn't bad, but still wrong. Your EXEL call for 2-Jul was wrong. Your $25 short term prediction remains to be seen, but I suspect Doc's $7-8 call is is going to prove out the more accurate. Doc's $4.50-$5 call for the post ASCO period is the one that gives you the most heartburn and also proved to be incredibly accurate.

      How about some fact based arguments to back up your propaganda.

    • Ernie, know you from MEDX, please don't respond to this kind of BS. Thank You for your input. Have a great weekend.

    • <<Oh, AND you're a day trader, too!!! So a reader has to blindly follow an anonymous Yahoo board poster to get the real true methodology.>>

      Over a three year period I posted several purchases and 2 sells. One sell was in reaction to a strong hint that a pivotal trial result would be disappointing and the other was because of investor irrational exuberance to what should have been a plain vanilla result. Both times I reentered at a lower price. If you want to call that "daytrading" so be it. Both times I sold I repurchased later at a lower price. Both times I sold the hardliners on the message board went into overdrive with the "true motives" crap.

      I'm not Warren Buffet and I don't want anyone to follow me blindly. The only reason I post my trades is so there is no mistake about where my sentiment lies. I'm not reluctant to be critical of certain aspects about a holding, that shouldn't be confused with a recommendation to sell.

      <<I see, questioning the 'experts' is apparently not the basis of freedom of speech,...>>

      I wouldn't want to restrict your first amendment rights. Post all the baseless accusations you want. Just remembember that I get to exercise my first amendment rights also and throw the BS flag whenever I see fit.

      <<IF you can't win the argument fairly here in America, you just win it by calling your opponent a communist.>>

      Or, on the Yahoo mb's if another poster doesn't fit your definition of being properly exuberant, tag him with the Hedgie label. We've come full circle. You want "fair arguments." Guess what, that involves facts, honest debate, and quotes instead of retooled paraphrasing. Debates instead of namecalling. I don't think you're up to the task.

    • <<Sort of a board bully, if you will.>>

      I follow the board closely, EXEL is a primary holding for me. My observation is that Doc prefers fact based posting with some analysis. You on the other hand prefer innuendo and speculation about motives and personalities. So which profile more closely fits that of a "board bully?"

      <<He posted 3 months ago that EXEL was fairly valued below $4.50. He has never admitted he was wrong ever, even though he was wrong about EXEL all summer long.>>

      The cool thing about Yahoo is that in 5 minutes you can review every post Doc made this summer. In ten minutes you can put together a summary of all his posts that support your supposition. The problem is that the facts simply don't support your assertion.

      <<Wouldn't want someone to question him on the Yahoo board, we can't have that, how could he sleep at night...>>

      Actually, I have questioned a number of things he has said. I've always gotten a well thought and courteous reply. When I question what you say, I generally get more unfounded genral claims and redirect, ie mostly crap.

      <<EXEL will be sold for more than $25/share in a very short while.>>

      That kind of outcome would suit me nicely, but I'm not about to hold my breath.

      • 2 Replies to erniewerner
      • Its like anything on the internet.... that HOTT 25 year old model is probably some back-zit, balding guy in his parents basement.... but in your mind it is what it is.... AND you should be happy with that... Was Dorothy happier with knowing that was behind the curtain.... DO what makes YOU happy and it all works out in the end... keep hoping for the next best thing and you end up with NOTHING... Speculation is speculation.

    • Very good advice!

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