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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • duckduffer duckduffer Dec 26, 2012 3:50 PM Flag

    From Hammer Stock Blog

    "the current valuation reflects ~15% chances of success"

    "This translates to a target price of $8.80 excluding other indications such as renal, lung and liver cancer. In addition, if cabo is approved in prostate cancer, it will face little competition as opposed to Medivation’s Xtandi, which will have to compete with generic Zytiga"

    Interesting read published on the 24th. The above comments really highlight the valuation that exists today. Does the data really only support a 15% chance of success? Is it only 15% likely that healing bone mets at low dosage won't extend OS? This may sound like the usual optimisim coming from me, but passing on this company today, thinking there will be better entry points, may be looking a gift horse in the mouth. I think Hammer's $8.80 target for current valuation should be realized. The positive catalysts have far outpaced the valuation.

    Think about some of the "what ifs"-
    -Cometriq DTC NCCN compendium listing
    -Positive OS data release from MTC study
    -European or Asian Cometriq partner
    -Restructure of GDC 0973 deal with Roche
    -Early readouts from pain study (Comet II)
    or dare I say...
    -Completely unexpected "merger" with a certain large next door neighbor in SSF.....nah, that one is just plain shameless pointless speculation..


    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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    • "Think about some of the "what ifs"-" Comet 2 is a virtual lock on acheiving its primary endpoint. It will show a 45-50% pain response rate vs MIto at something less than 10%. It will also show a concommittant reduction in narcotic use that Mito will not match. For those who are risk averse and do not want to hold through the Comet 1 unblinding, Comet 2 may provide an opportunity to pull some chips off the table. So far the market is not taking cabo seriously. I think Ohad has one thing right, the market is assigning a low probability to Comet 1 success and completely ignoring Comet 2.

      • 1 Reply to erniewerner
      • This quote-
        "In my opinion, chances of approval are higher (33%) based on the dramatic and reproducible resolution of bone mets and Alpharadin’s survival effect, which works exclusively by targeting bone metastases"
        gets to the biggest hurdle the bears have thrown down. Overall survival. Alpharadin has demonstrated an OS benefit from the positive effect on bone metastasis. I realize transference is not always applicable to biotech data, but this little factoid combined with Dr. Schwabs recent open market investment, have me more confident than ever we are going to get positive OS data in Comet 1. In the shorter term, I'm with Ernie, Comet 2 could unexpectedly invigorate investor sentiment.
        BTW- Hammer explains his 33% odds with a simple "most drugs fail" comment. Far from damning. Just a statement of fact on the laws of probabilites he likely utilizes to filter risk.

        Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • Agree, the odds favor substantial move up. And how many times have I said, my opinion is, this is way undervalued given current data, potential, current cap, cash on hand and possibility of takeover bid? The shorts try and put all this down, based on absolutely NOTHING, and the spinning of illogical negative spins, which are usually gross generalities. Odds of this moving up on no news over next 90 days, very good as people get positioned after year end maneuvers, odds also of more news excellent, and looking out longer, over next two years move up, absolutely fantastic compared to most any other biotech I see out there, especially if you are looking for blockbuster performance. Of course there are risks. If there were not, then the stock would be multiples of the current price now, instead of at some point in the future. Anyone who tries to spin the risk card here, as thought they are going to get in at a low price when all has been proved up and revealed for CABO and other ongoing projects is simply spouting nonsense. Fair enough to point out risks, but the fact is: that is the reason why biotech can deliver such high returns. Do I think risk is greatly reduced here for a number of reasons. YES. Why I INVEST here. That is how I see it. Best bet for 2013 AND 2014 is right here. EOS But wait and see, by all means. That is the choice. Better yet. IMO Go short. For us longs like that even more!

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • $$$$

      "Does the data really only support a 15% chance of success? Is it only 15% likely that healing bone mets at low dosage won't extend OS?"

      Good post, duckduffer. I also thought Ohad's handicapping percentages to be a bit too conservative. Sure makes me question my perspective on the data to date... or question his methodology...and perhaps even his motive. The ink is barely dry on the P2 JCO CRPC low-dose/ improved tolerance data - which was a pretty darned positive publication - and peer-reviewed directly in-line w/ previously published trial data. Not a mention of this either from Hammer...

      At these levels, I'm still a buyer...and I expect we'll see a few more Form 4's before EXEL breaks thru $5 again. GLTA

    • "Think about some of the "what ifs"-"Let me add a few comments after each of your what ifs.
      "-Cometriq DTC NCCN compendium listing" I think this one will happen, but I have not seen it discussed anywhere but this venue, so if it doesn't happen, there will be no press release and no market reaction to a disappointment.
      "-Positive OS data release from MTC study" Fingers crossed on this one. Not acheiving a statsig OS will not result in a subsequent disapproval. If the treatment arm were disadvantaged, then the drug could be withdrawn. Statsig survival would give some credibility to the other ongoing trials.
      "-European or Asian Cometriq partner" Just my opinion, but I don't see anything on partnering until we have pivotal data in other indications.
      "-Restructure of GDC 0973 deal with Roche" Maybe. Monetizing 973 lengthens the cash runway.
      "-Early readouts from pain study (Comet II) " No interim analysis, but this trial is a lock for statsig pain improvement. It will be an attention grabber and depending on Comet 1 progress, XL might file on these results.
      "-Completely unexpected "merger" with a certain large next door neighbor in SSF.....nah, that one is just plain shameless pointless speculation.." Not holding my breath. With EXAM OS and Comet 2 results in hand, takeover speculation will reemerge. Until then, I'm going to be patient.

10.92-0.02(-0.18%)Oct 27 4:00 PMEDT