2013 is the year EXEL outperforms and makes you big money...
People forget quickly what to focus on, and are news junkies to a large extent, especially short term traders (short or long) as would be expected. I suggest anyone who is a real investor, go back and read some of the comments where people were actually looking and had a focus on the REAL situation here. For example, read this:
"There had been some concern that Cometriq (formerly cabozantinib) may not be approved since the FDA completely removed its FDA panel meeting with Exelixis in late August and never rescheduled the review. That all went out the window last week when Cometriq received approval to treat metastatic medullary thyroid cancer, or MTC, after exhibiting an incredibly strong median progression-free survival time of 11.2 months compared to the placebo at four months. With only AstraZeneca's (NYSE: AZN ) Caprelsa in place to treat MTC, it seems like a lock that Cometriq will be the MTC drug of choice.
Beyond just MTC, Exelixis will be working on advancing Cometriq through additional cancer indications including castration-resistant prostate cancer. Currently, Exelixis has two ongoing late-stage trials for prostate cancer to measure Cometriq's efficacy in terms of prolonging patient survival rate and reducing pain, as well as mid-stage trials targeted at (not kidding) nine different cancers! 2013 is going to be a decisive year for Exelixis as it rolls out Cometriq, potentially seeks out a partner, and reports a slew of mid-and-late-stage data."
Nothing has changed, in fact it ALL looks better. That is what you look for, if you are looking for undervaluation in biotech. NOT ONE THING indicates ALL the potential is not going to roll out.
Again: you buy and accumulate when the upside is far greater than the downside over time, and that is the exact situation here. Put another way: want to catch a 5 or 10 bagger? How do you do that? Buying the Apples of this world at $700 plus? NO Or is it when they were real cheap with HUGE potentials, but most were waiting for confirmation, which of course is a contradiction, because when that happens you no longer can buy them low. A simple reality. So, of course, the big money is made when the risk exists, to a greater or lessor extent. Here we have a lessor risk profile, in relative terms to most any other biotech, because of the balance sheet and an already approved drug, with expanding markets straight ahead, and increasing cash flows. Want to ride the big run, really? You have to be on board. Its that simple. Where do you get a better shot?
Even Motley Fool is starting to see the picture for 2013. Do not get fooled folks by the short term shorts, who claim I am this or that. I am a PRIVATE INVESTOR. Do not mind anyone disagreeing with my take, that is what these boards are for, less anyone forgets. But the personal nonsense is a sure sign of desperation when a logical argument is presented. I am long. Staying that way, and yes buying more all the time.
What does the latest Motley Fool comment say?
"Earlier this month, shortly after biotechnology company Exelixis (NASDAQ: EXEL ) won approval by the Food and Drug Administration for Cometriq to treat metastatic medullary thyroid cancer, or MTC, I exclaimed that investors must be on crazy pills for bidding down its share price. Three weeks later and I see the crazy-pill hysteria has spread even further. I feel now is the time to give Exelixis shares a good hard look!
I fully understand that there are only 2,250 cases of MTC diagnosed in the U.S. each year, so the market will be somewhat constrained for Cometriq, but the sheer dominance of the drug in trials should allow it to completely blow"
Sounds pretty clear to me, and I agree, obviously, as my take is the same.
"I fully understand that there are only 2,250 cases of MTC diagnosed in the U.S. each year, so the market will be somewhat constrained for Cometriq, but the sheer dominance of the drug in trials should allow it to completely blow"
There is a big diference between the number of diagnosed cases nd the number that fit the described Comet indication Most cases of thyroid cancer (inluding MTC) are cured by surgery. Those that are not will eventually progress into the advanced metastatic stage that is Comet's indication. The 1000 patient pool is EXEL's number, so who are you going to believe, Motley Fool or Exelixi?. So would you like to take another stab at Comet annual revenue?
Quote was cut off at ... "completely blow" and the end of the story was..." but the sheer dominance of the drug in trials should allow it to completely blow AstraZeneca's (NYSE: AZN ) Caprelsa, which was approved last year for the treatment of MTC, right out of the water. Cometriq, in trials, demonstrated a progression-free survival rate nearly three times as long as the placebo, and a response rate of 28% compared to zero for the placebo! I feel very strongly that Exelixis will find additional indications for Cometriq and look forward to what could be a very robust growth period for the company. "
Stay focused folks, because short term nonsense, even hedge fund shorting or ANYTHING will get totally blown away as CABO ramps up. Remember, nothing can stop these when a drug takes off, or they get bought out very quickly, at a premium of course. Is it coming here? I think so! As all I read from these shorts is very short term, weak arguments. What I see coming overwhelms all else, and if I am correct on outcomes, follows the history of many huge wins of a similar nature. Ironically here, risk appears FAR less.IMO