Far too many open call contracts from the $5.00 to $7.00 range for February strikes. 15k open call vs. just 4k open puts in that range. "USUALLY" a great contrarian indicator. In other words, the powers that be will make sure those 15k open calls expire worthless. Unless, sometimes, there is a large short strangle hold on the common. Hedge funds have hedged their massive short holdings with some call options it seems.
One outside possibility of these scenarios, if they were to be blatantly greedy, would be to cover some shares heading in to February, temporarily causing those calls to spike higher so they can cash in, then re-shorting those shares to send the stock right back down...making $$ on both sides. Wouldn't put it past those weasels to do that.
Charts on all timeframes look bearish so it doesn't look like the aforementioned scenario is "in play" at this point.
Great post. I like the facts and your conclusions drawn from them, especially absent any character assassinations. Now I can choose to agree or disagree. Doesn't get any better than that. I hope for similar posts in the future and hope others, especially those who may disagree, do the same..
"ARQL and DNDN's charts remain "UBER BULLISH" :)" Just curious. I took a quick look at the DNDN mb and it appears to me that the recent spike is due to takeover fever and the mood there is decidedely euphoric. Novartis bought a manufacturing facility and the usual suspects are connecting the dots and predicting partnership or aquisition. Aren't those the same indicators that presage major moves down here at EXEL? Does that give you a little pause?
It matters not as to the "why" a stock has broken out...takeover spec, a new approval, a partnership, etc. Why has ARQL broken out? Who knows. DNDN price target is that $7.00 zone..the trader is ratcheting those stops higher and higher on the run to lock in big profits.
Everyone on this MB has been hoping a buyout would happen for EXEL for YEARS and perhaps one day another rumor of such will be floated, causing the stock to show a bullish chart vs. bearish. But i would argue youmwill,see that change in setup character PRIOR to any bullish catalyst. As you are seeing in DNDN, charts oftentimes predict the "news" (or in their case, rumor). DNDN was trading in the mid 4's not too long ago...and it isn't until recently the rumor mill got started.