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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • wildbiftek wildbiftek Mar 27, 2013 12:08 AM Flag

    Gloomy mood

    The mood on this board is pretty negative even without the usual jokers; it's hard to watch your stock languish while the market is making a run. Note that volume as of late has been a trickle at best with institutional ownership sitting on their shares; with low volume before actual revenues trickle in and big news hits, it's difficult to ascertain the company's true value since few outside these institutions have done the research or possess sufficient capital to make a big bet. Some of them are probably still arbitraging against the small band of non-institutional share holders left and in doing so, paring their stake down to the proportion they want to hold in the long run (I don't believe in betting the "pharm" either c.f. the Kelly Criterion).

    I still think the low volume and high institutional ownership is a pretty positive sign that the big money is also waiting on news so chin up; just don't expect too big a spike because of a short squeeze since the institutions will just cover withe their secondaries in the worst case.

    Sentiment: Hold

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    • The only "usual jokers" in this forum are all of you people that have held this stock for years and years with nothing to show for it, all the while pounding the table as to what a "great buy it is". Yes, those are the bonafide jokers. Keep clickin' them heels together boys and tell yourselves you'll be back in Kansas one day! LMAO

      EXEL is dog chyte. As long as mm is in charge, it will remain so. There is a reason employees fled the co. over the past few years and went to better managed biotech co's. EXEL is straddled with huge debt and they will dilute again soon. EXEL remains a short. Easy $$$$$$$

      Sentiment: Strong Sell

    • I have to agree that the tutes will mute a short squeeze on the next big catalyst, as they clearly are responsible for a large portion of the secondary from August and the current short interest. Where I would like more clarity is at what point does holding a hedge in the face of ever increasing positives become unnecessary. I can't imagine IH's want to cover the short hedge with their secondary holdings. Defeats the purpose of buying into the secondary in the first place. So at what point do you finally retire the hedge. I really thought after the MTC approval we would see that covering lead to a nice gradual ascent. I still believe that will happen sooner rather than later. In the interim, one must assume the lack of movement is due to the convertible arbitrage, which seems like a much more compelling reason to consistently short/cover, short/cover, short/cover, until a catalyst driven volume increase drives the PPS and the arbitragers out of that particular play. A combination of catalyst and hedge covering will likely be the impetus. Not going to happen this week, but perhaps sooner than many are projecting. Meanwhile the world keeps on spinning and the clinical mojo grows.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

10.96+0.05(+0.46%)Aug 26 4:00 PMEDT