George Scangos, former CEO of EXEL , and current CEO at Biogen Idec, still owns a hefty piece of EXEL and knows the business as well as anybody and is till on EXEL's board. He hasn't sold his shares and it is interesting to note that he has grown Biogen's share price (to around $50B) with a strategy of expanding the indications for existing drugs in the Biogen pipeline. Morrissey seems to have learned well at his mentor's feet, but the convertible offering last year was a major mistake, caused mainly by a former Goldman Sachs finance banker and M&A guy, Frank Karbe. We will soon find out if Morrisey and Karbe were simply idiots or were pawns for a large TO bid when OS previews in ASCO abstracts take most of the risk out of EXEL.
Mentor? MM has bigger ego than Scangos. He is neither good at finance, nor good at drug development. Ironically, people here think without him, cabo won't work. Vote against everything on this year's proxy!
"...a large TO bid when OS previews in ASCO abstracts take most of the risk out of EXEL."
I've been anxious to see whatever CRPC survival data EXEL has. But, unless that data is really extraordinary, I woldn't look for it to cause a major shift in perceptions about the investment risk in the stock. One of the things fueling my interest in the OS data is the fact that none of it has been presented to date. I look for what is not said in addition to what is said and I was frankly at least a bit worried that it wasn't covered yet because it wan't good news. The data to be released will be uncontrolled and any comparisons will be to historic data from other trials. Even if those comparisons are good, uncontrolled data can be highly variable and considerable differences exist between the entry criteria for the trial to be reported on and Comet 1&2, as well as dose differences. We'll see what's reported when the abstracts come out and when the presentations are made. I would also look for another investor presentation at the end of ASCO with perhaps even more detailed information being discussed then.
"I've been anxious to see whatever CRPC survival data EXEL has. But, unless that data is really extraordinary, I woldn't look for it to cause a major shift in perceptions about the investment risk in the stock."
Ernie, your statement makes me curious. The data for the past two years has been increasingly top notch. If efficacy at lower dose had been considered earlier in the evolution of past trial design, Cabo could possibly have witnessed a "lower than average" TKI toxicity profile...and the regrettable 2011 setback of treatment-induced AE-5's might never have reported.
We've been round-and-round here on this MB for many, many months wrt the predictive overtures of pain relief, CTC counts, impact on hemoglobin, bone turnover markers - and most recently - preclinical indications of tumor necrosis and an apparent "normalization" of the cancerous trabecular bone micro-environment. It would appear that the bone scan phenomenon has been all-but substantiated. Early play seems to indicate a possible synergy w/ Abi. The clinical mojo has grown to an inspirational pace - much of it on Other People's Money.
Bases are loaded...Casey's at bat...
Couple all this with an OS factor (soon to be announced), and we just might have something.
IYO - What are the numbers that will convince Mr Market?
What are you expecting? What might you consider a "base hit"?
What's gonna "grand slam" this bad boy into the big leagues?
If the OS data were great, wouldn't we have already seen a take-out?
H'mmm quite a few thumbs down on the T.O. possibilities.
I've always done better as a contrarian than going with the crowd and I think it is worth noting that if we get no T.O. bid then the upside might even be greater as a stand alone company that possibly has the next Avastin in their quiver.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
If MM is stupid, why he only hold 1000 shares of EXEL? this is the worst CEO I have ever seen. show no confidence on the future of his company. He never ever spent a cent to purchase even one share of EXEL from open market using his own money. He is very busy exercising his options and collect the money every Q. What kind of CEO he is?
Sentiment: Strong Buy