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Exelixis, Inc. Message Board

  • mbschwab00 mbschwab00 May 2, 2013 5:06 PM Flag


    All someone has to do is open up the chart on yahoo, pull up EXEL and compare it to the Nas Biotech Index (^NBI) and you will see a patternistic destruction of value (almost mapping every curve while further declining versus the overall index) over the past 10-12 years.

    The company's business model simply does not work and its been proven out over time (under Scangos as well) - the company perpetually has to seek additional funds through licensing their products or diluting share by raising capital because they haven't created a self-sustaining business model.

    I believe the company could make something out of the talented R&D staff and products it's creating, but they need a clear change in how they run the business.

    The only positive exit is acquisition - which I think has a good chance of happening at some point (so I wouldn't short the stock) - but I certainly wouldn't hold it either since that is the only exit with it's current startegic direction. There are plenty of lower risk, higher return options out there in biotech.

    Sentiment: Sell

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    • So according to your "ROI" synopsis, the 10-12 year chart of EXEL should be considered independant of the developments of Cometrique? And that the only positive outcome is acquisition? Really? That was a serious comment?
      The facts are the company has-
      -for the first time in its history an FDA approved cancer drug (Cometrique) proven active in 9 cancer types
      -3 ongoing Phase III trials
      -over 40 total clinical trials (many of which are IST or Crada sponsored)
      -multiple partnered compounds with significant future revenue potential (GDC 0973)
      -roughly 600M in cash
      -a drug with such unique efficacy on bone metastasis it has been described as "unprecedented"

      Put away your 10-12 year chart. This company is on the verge of a truly remarkable transformation if the data continues to be good. The valuation could be a significant multiple from todays. Comparing EXEL to it's past is a completely pointless exercise. The future is where you look for developing biotechs.

      Sentiment: Strong Buy

    • $$$$
      Thanks for sharing your concerns, mbschwab00...but in reviewing your current profile I've decided that since today's was was the first post you've decided to actually take credit for... I'll await some sense of reinforcement as to your credibility. Fool me once...well shame on me...
      But fool me twice....and well oh well... We Won't Get Fooled Again....
      I still think we'll party in the streets, GW loserboy....
      Get a Life....Mr one-post ever... yeah uhhhhhh...right O

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