At what price? With so many pots on their fires that exel's currently have, it may be prudent for Roche to take an overall look at exel's progress towards bringing Cometric,I and II , along with the many other Cancer trials that exel currently has. I believe with a conservative offer of $25.00 a share, it may be a reason for Exel to consider selling as a package.
Nov 4, 2009 Buyout talk has taken at least this far back.I'm sure it went on futher back.From a oncodocbiotechwiz post on that date.A fair price depends upon what one assumes about all the various programs (what will be successful, when it will be successful, and what the competition will be at that time). This ends up being very complicated because of the co-development deals and potetnial profit sharing for the various programs. I'll give you a framework and the board can debate details.That gives a total of about $900 million which with some 115 million shares (and more if the price goes up based on employee options being exercised) gives a share price between 7 and 8.Obviously with new data and new assumptions this can change markedly. Also note that I haven't accounted for current cash nor anticipated spend to advance the programs. The other question is when such a deal would happen. I would not assume any buyout for at least a year as it would seem like big pharma would want to wait for more data before investing big bucks for part of several programs. This too could change based on a few good clinical results.
Please note that I just made this up and it is not a rigorous analysis, but more a framework. I'd be curious about what assumptions you would make. If you assume a buyout, who, when, and at what price?The Wiz
Nice walk down memory lane. 2009 - I can't believe its been that long. Realistically - the buyout should happen anytime between now and the final results of the Comet trials. Cometriq is already approved, so once big pharma can see a pathway to additional approval (which, as MEDX showed is not always transparent) they will pull the trigger.
The issue with waiting for the data - is that the price will immediately adjust on the result, making it that much more expensive. I think we see something happen within the next three quarters.
If cometriq was partnered I would say less likely, but since it is the 'rare' wholly owned and then there's cobimetinib (roche believes in this compound) with a huge royalty, it's a no brainier....if we get prostate....it's gone