"According to the slides, looks like MMM will be addressing potential revenues from Cabo..."
Come on people. Those are not Cabo revenue estimates. They are the entire size of the market for the indications they describe. In all cases there are competing drugs and in most cases EXEL is aiming a subgroup indication that even with 100% market penetration would not equal the size of the quoted statistic.
As per Ernie's comments, we would need to add an additional market penetration factor.
(Sales - COGS) / sharecount * P/E * (1/1.095^years) * probabliltiy of success * Market Penetration
Assuming all 4 major indication get approved (big assumption):
5B - 2B) / 300M * 18 * 1/1.095^4 = 3000/300*18*0.696 = 180 * 0.696 = $125.28 * 10%?
= $12.53 or $1.23 per share for each percent of marketshare
If you want to break this out, it might be more use full to look by indication as they may differ significantly in marketshare, pobability of success and years to market approval. (I did say previously that it was a simplistic estimate...)