This article makes me even more bullish than ever on MITK. Anyone doubting MITK now is crazy...people will say that it looks weak technically...granted I'm not a big fan of technical analysis but from the little I know it looks like a nice cup & handle is forming. And given the big run from the $1 area to $6, it's basically just digesting its gains. I think MITK makes another big run up between now and the end of 2012, eventually hitting the $50 area.
I am a firm believer in MITK.OB and have been following it daily for about a year now, and I do not think $50 is anywhere in the picture. My 1 year target is about $12. It should see $10 by this years end and float between 10-15 during 2012, depending on revenues, contracts, move to NASDAQ, etc. So much is in the pipeline for this stock. BUY ON ANY DIPS! If all goes well, it could see $20 by end of 2012! EASY.
My price target relies entirely upon the speed of adoption by the banks and how much they promote mobile check deposit. Consumers have already proven their demand for it as evidenced by the amount of deposits by usaa members (4 million checks deposited in the 1st year)
Reality check regarding $50 stock price target! Seems that you are getting a little ahead of yourself. I'd be happy to see North of $10 maybe even $15 in a year but $50. Could you support your price prediction with fundamental facts and figures? Maybey it is a gut feel or simply based on low float, small outstanding share count and the expected frenzy?
revenue model: $0.15 for every deposit or $1.50/annually for every subscriber
Assumptions: 100 Million mobile banking users by 2014. Currently of the banks that have mobile deposit 50% of their mobile customers are using mobile deposit, from what I've read. Assuming that all banks offer mobile deposit by 2014 and that 75% of mobile bank customers use mobile deposit, then the market size is $112 Million (75 Million x $1.50 annually). Or if you look at the number of checks deposited annually by mobile user, I think you could assume that 10 checks per person or 750 Million checks. At $0.15/check that's a market of $112 Million again.
MITK currently owns 100% of the market, but let's assume mkt share is 50%. That equates to $56 Million in revenues. At 85% gross margin, you get $48 Million gross profit. They currently are doing about $3 Million in additional revenues annually. Assuming that dips to $2 Million and gross profits are 65% on those, then you get total Gross Profit of $49.1 Million.
Expenses are currently about $5 Million, but assuming they double, then you get $10 Million.
$49.1 Million - $10 Million = $39.1 Million.
Assuming a peak multiple of 25-30 times Income, that's a market cap of $1 Billion to $1.2 Billion. Divided by shs outstanding of 18.8 Million you get $52 to $62/share.
Keep in mind that this assumes: (1) Doubling of overhead expenses (2) No value is given to Mobile Bill Pay or other services (3) MITK owns only 50% of the market, even though they have a monopoly on it right now.