This is trading at 10x this years earnings which is expensive considering the climate and the risk. They said today that 100m was canceled an there is another 500m at risk of cancel. That's a pretty big risk. Even at that 15x next years earnings for a equipment company is very very rich. This is due for a big pull back until the future is more clear.
well i covered my puts today, but i must have one quick concern. Does it bother any of you that Kramer talks about joyg everyday on his show. It really bothers me when he keeps talking about the same stocks over and over again. It sure does seem like he's got a big position and need this to do up. I most likely will as these selloff's keep being met intraday and can never hold. I wasn't really following the market too much but i'm sure when the dow was down 130 Goldman came out and added every stock to its conviction buy list to prop the market up again like they did with the banks about a month ago and oil last week when it looked like the trends were about to break. Seems like too much of that going on right now. Either way can't fight the market, no matter what there are enough big people talking the market up to keep the rally intact for now. Dow could hit 10k in the next month or 2 at this rate. Too bad Tex is killing me :(. Still like the sector i guess i should of just stuck with the pure play mining equip maker.
You are not in anyway bashing. It's overbought in the short-term and any pull back in the market will hit anything that rose up commodity oriented like JOYG harder than the overall market. You are just stating your opinion along with facts.
That's just what they said today. The guy on cnbc, who I normally like said that they issued good guidance for next Q. Well this is still the hangover from last year and to be honest the guidance for the next year isn't as good as is for the next 6 months. Like i said earlier they reported 70% less bookings then they did last year's Q and they said they are at risk for another 500m of cancellations that is some of the worst guidance i've seen. That's alot of risk here at this price. I'm comfortable being short here at this time. There will be a 10-20% correction in the stock in the next week or 2 as the commodity's have broken here short term as well.
i got puts, nothing major just really a hedge against my calls elsewhere. I just think the run is really extended and it's being propped up by earnings today that, well were below analyst estimates by .02. Not a huge miss but given the run in the past week i don't think that a miss and a 15x 2010 earnings supports a higher price. I think that long term everything is ok but i'm sure that the only reason that this is trading up is just momentum which seems to be fizzling as the day wears. I'm not bashing the company but it's just a little too pricey given the current economic conditions and what in normal times would be considered a huge negative which is the potential 500m more of orders being canceled and a 75% less bookings from last year's quarter. I believe that this Quarter will be the last of orders from the good times of last year. Alot of companies to honor their bookings which would explain why the numbers were good this quarter but are expected over the next year to decline significantly.