Right now I feel a little bit confused. On the one hand Tariko is injecting cash into CEDC ($50 Mio+107 for refinancing of CEDC bonds + revolving credit, according to the agreement end of 2012) on the other hand he is sending funny letters to CEDC with EXPIRED put rights for shares? First of all CEDC and Tariko agreed in waiving all matters with the old agreement and Tariko picks out one point and thinks he can generate cash with stupid ideas? Can't he read properly? Why does he think the old agreement has expired but his put-right not? Either he is completely mad or something else behind. Not so much logic behind those last actions.
that's the way business is made in Russia - up to date actually all of his actions have been inconsistent but things have been mostly going in his favor as he already has gained operational control of CEDC (I would really wonder if he hasn't already started to shift valuable assets to Roust Trading) and will very likely be able to negotiate a very profitable deal concerning the maturing convertibles that will allow him to also gain a majority of the share capital.
But when keeping the company afloat he will also have do come to terms with senior bondholders as the imminent change of control would trigger the immediate repayment of the bonds. I guess he would like to somehow get rid of this giant senior debt load but still hasn't figured out a workaround here.
Remember the Kaufman letter suggesting that even with the company filing for chapter 11 Tariko would most likely still make a good deal despite the losses on the stock and junior debt as he will be able to prevail in russian bankruptcy courts.
So at this point I still expect the very worst for the common shareholders while the senior bonds are destined to soar on almost any deal which avoids bankruptcy.
We all think about CEDC and Tariko. Maybe we are too focused on that. There might be a third party interested in CEDC business. For example one of the other big guys in the Alk-industry. Maybe they are already negotiating a deal with the senior bond holders. Why am I speculating this? Because of continuously bad news, falling stock price, falling convertible price, funny Tariko actions however quite stabile senior bond price. Even up from yesterday bid/ask in Europe around 64/65 right now.