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Two Harbors Investment Corp. Message Board

  • shorting_amazon shorting_amazon Nov 6, 2013 11:03 AM Flag

    Simple Math

    They made $0.19 last quarter.

    They pay $.28 dividend last quarter.

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    • Book value went up more than that that per share. You might want to note this gem about TWO's core earnings and book value from the CC: "All of these metrics are consistent with our expectations when we set the third quarter dividend."

      Sometimes mREITs position themselves defensively for a quarter or two and reduce their leverage. TWO did just that, and their book value did not take the hit over the last two quarters that most mREITs did because of it. They will probably increase their leverage on their agency bonds and up their earnings in Q4, since there is a little more clarity on rates and tapering now. If there is an issue, TWO can just not buy back as much stock for a quarter or two if liquidity is an issue, but based on the CC, it is not.

      Sentiment: Buy

    • Put call over 4 yesterday - over 15 a week ago. 12 month chart is nutty. Can only hope that new trend is our friend - if you're long, that is.

    • ........yes government math. Be careful folks.

    • Put/Call ratio @ 3.3 on an above average volume day.

      Cheap insurance or a sign of things to come?

      • 1 Reply to shorting_amazon
      • I don't think pcr by itself tells you anything. You need to look at strike price and change in interest wrt strike, exp. date, and option type all together. There's very high interest in Nov $9 and Jan $10 and $12 puts. Call interest is high for Nov $10, Jan $9, and Jan $10. Put buyers bet at some point (possibly in the past) on sub $9 in Nov, but on sub $10 and on sub $12 in Jan. It's not a negative sentiment to bet on share price being sub $12 in Jan. I'm long TWO and I'd bet on that.

        The other thing I always question about pcr as sentiment indicator is that it takes two to establish a position -- buyer and seller. Someone took the opposite bet on every open position out there....

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