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Alabama Aircraft Industries, In Message Board

  • disruptive_tech disruptive_tech Apr 30, 2004 6:44 PM Flag


    Morons longs are getting creamed. It is tough being a short. Decisions, decisions. Do you cover at $5 or wait for them to file for bk. If there is no covering, there is no gain for tax purposes. Like gx. Never covered so never had to pay taxes. Life is tough.

    short on glbc too. Turds never should have come out of bk. It is more of a pos than aaii. A can't miss prospect for shorts but better hurry.

    have a great weekend longs. Maybe your heads will clear up and you can sell on monday. Or you can continue to be a moron.

    c ya at $5.

    so sad, so sad ....

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    • Why did you assume I was fooled. I did the calculations I suggest. Even if you assume that these are the only problems we have there is nothing left.


    • Nice to see an 84 year old lady is fooled by these thieving wilmington carpetbaggers. Why are all the other morons fooled?

      c ya at $5!

      so sad, so sad ....

    • I don't dispute your list of seven things, but there are a couple of additional items that you should include relating to last year's earnings.

      1) The channel stuffing centered around only two products. We don't know whether more items will be included now that a complete audit has take place.

      2) There may be charges to cover downsizing.

      The audit has been completed, yet no statement has been made indicating the size of the EPS restatement. IMO there is a reason for not reporting these results and it is not going to be good for shareholders.

    • Why don't you use your brain...

      Operating earnings will be down because

      (a) Royalties got accelerated. This will be earnings this year but will not be continued. It was also earnings last year.

      (b) Channel was stuffed. Drop in earnings equal extra sales times margin. The margin in this business on incremental sales is at least 75% and there are some fairly good estimates on how much channel stuffed.

      (c) This year and beyond because they have sold the business to Mayne.

      Interest will change because

      (a). They need to pay higher interest rates on both the secured and unsecured debt.

      (b). They paid a penalty to the unsecured debt holders.

      (c). They closed their fixed-to-floating interest rate swaps so they now pay fixed rate interest bills.

      (d). (and this might be good) they have repaid some debt.

      Making plausible estimates of all these things you can work out what the earnings are. All you guys are speculating - but it can be done for sure. I have seven things for you to check... only seven.

      It should take people about half an hour to check all these and post answers.

      Everyone asking what earnings are has failed to do basic analysis. In this post are the variables.

      Now think rather than talk.


      PS. Most men would rather die than think. Many do.

      I am an old woman so I am not in that category.

    • With regards to the lenders who helped out with the 140 M loan recently-these guys dont dare what the stock is worth, they are in line ahead of any stockholders if it comes down to a bankruptcy situation. All they had to be concerned with was the probability of recovering the principal that was lent. Thus, it may be delusional to reason that this thing is all OK because of the fact they have been extended this credit.

    • I really don't think it will be that bad, truthfully and realistically think about the cash infusement they just got, those guys got to see the books, and they would not have invested that kind of dough if the restatement was going to be that bad. I also see somewhat of a floor at $6, and that makes sense b/c that would be the stock trading at a 10x multiple at $.60 a share. You have to understand there are much bigger players out there who have immense resources, that you, I, and most do not. The institutions are long, the public is short. Additionaly, even if you are short, as i said before, what's your upside a dollar and a half when you cover at 5, risk reward is horrible for shorts!

    • My concern is that it could be much worse than that. Potentially a loss and a big loss at that.

      But this shows the problem we have. AAII managment knows what the announcement will be, but the average investor doesn't have a clue.

    • I would say no worse than a 50% cut, so we'll call it $.60

    • What an angry and unhappy person you must be to take time out of your day, everyday, to call all the long players in this stock morons. Let me explain to you what a moron is, a moron is one that insults others to make himself feel better, second a moron is someone who's big stock infatuation has a maximum upside of a dollar and half and a infinite downside, finally your not original by being short almost 50% of the float is short, and you know what that means, Short Squeeze! Play with the public morons and get burned, you deserve it for being such a punk. By the way I'm long and strong and intend to make a bundle while you get whacked.

    • amitabhgoel May 1, 2004 6:10 PM Flag

      Why don't you ask your teachers in school for some advanced learning classes so you can learn to write properly? Some vocabulary classes would help too as I see the same ten words repeated in your daily droolings.