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Ascential Software Corp. (ASCL) Message Board

  • yesimreallymelvin yesimreallymelvin Jun 20, 2002 2:42 PM Flag

    Another Fearless Prognostication

    I've made public predictions seven times in the last six months about where ASCL stock is heading, and I've been right seven times in a row. Here's my eighth prediction.

    I predict that by next Wednesday, ASCL will have dropped below $2.70, which will be an all-time low for ASCL (adjusted for splits) over the entire life of ASCL and IFMX.

    ASCL has not reached the basement yet. It'll be $2.50 by the end of July.

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    • And that's not counting the $100M deferred payment from IBM.

      However, based on the last press release, I'm wondering if that $100M is at risk.

    • Heh... this gets my vote for funniest post of the week.

      IG, quick clue on simple math...

      If ASCL burns $50M/quarter, that works out to $200M/year ($50M/quarter X 4 quarters/year).

      700/200M = 3.5 years.

      3.5 years X 12months/year = 42 months...

      Basically, exactly what ltdang said. even IF they burn $50M/quarter, the benefit of having $700 million in the bank is they could survive for 42 months, or 14 QUARTERS (not months), or 3.5 years before the cash ran out.

      Even using your bogus 'figuring' of $450 million, that $50m burn rate would give them 9 QUARTERS, or 27 months, or 2.25 years worth of survival.

      So, for them to be bankrupt by Dec. at a $50m burn rate (figure that == $100m lost in the last two quarters) they would need to lose $600m in acquisitions.

      I'll leave you to your 'idiocy' challenges now...

    • LTDANAG: `1
      ASSHOLE: 0

      ROFLMAO.

    • I think you need to get new batteries for your calculator. There are 3 months in a quarter.

      My quote: "The BOTTOM LINE is that ASCL can burn $50M/quarter and still hang around for another 42 months. Given the current economy, I'd much rather be sitting on a pile of cash than not."

      For IG's benefit: 700 / 50 = 14 quarters
      14 quarters of 3 months each = 42

    • I rest my case regarding the level of your idiocy -- it approaches that of the most intellectually challenged! You quote...

      "The BOTTOM LINE is that ASCL can burn $50M/quarter and still hang around for another 42 months. Given the current economy, I'd much rather be sitting on a pile of cash than not."

      Even at $700 million (I think the number is closer to $450 million) at a $50 million burn rate, they would last 14 months, not 42. Or 9 months based on my figures.

      However, one or two acquisitions could lower the implosion date to December 2002.

    • >>>>>>>>>>>If they wanted to reduce the number of shares, all they would have to do is 1:10 reverse stock spilt.

      This is perhaps the most idiotic thing you've posted here. You've demonstrated a complete lack of understanding of how equity works. It's not about the number of shares, it's about the dilution. It costs too much for the percentage of the company I get when I buy a share of stock.

      >>>>>>>>>>But the fact still remains that nobody, and I mean absolutely nobody, is interested in buying this company, in large part because it does not, and never will, have a viable product.

      1,800 current customers disagree with you, and they're winning deals every week. Gartner, META, IDG -- they all disagree with your assessment. Gee, I wonder who we should believe.

      >>>>>>>>>>Plus, even if a new purchasing company could drop the existing management team, it would cost a fortune to do so.

      Zero response to my last post where I showed the evidence that the golden parachutes aren't that big at ASCL.


      >>>BOTTOM LINE: ASCL's days are number at fewer than 180.

      The BOTTOM LINE is that ASCL can burn $50M/quarter and still hang around for another 42 months. Given the current economy, I'd much rather be sitting on a pile of cash than not.

      The BOTTOM LINE is that there's value to this company, although current management doesn't seem to be able to do much because of the macro environment. They're in good company, because SUNW, CSCO, ORCL, and IBM are all in the same boat. But when you've got the opportunity to invest in a market leader for close to cash value, it's a good deal.

    • You're full of shit. The IFMX/ASCL low is $0.315 adjusted for splits. And yes, we will get there by year's end. This company is not worth even its cash holding, which I estimate at around $450 million. By Spetember, that cash hoard will be below $200 million, and gone by December.

      We have a long way further to fall before the company declares bankruptcy.

      With respect to the company being bought? Forget it. Why pay cash for cash? ASCL has no product, so no other company needs or wants what it does. This company will die a long, painful death, as its executives make millions at shareholder expense.

      Welcome to the world of legal white collar crime!

    • you must be making money by short selling.