And let me tell you one thing IFMX sucks and if
it ever gets back to 14 or 15 it will be banished
from my portfolio. Lets face it folks we have seen the
best for this year. We must all be a bunch of morons
for hoping this stock will be our economic salvation.
I gaurantee if you sold all your IFMX positions,
put it in Dell, Cisco or Lucent you will have a lot
more money from that than had you held IFMX. I may
just do this even sooner.
Part II continued:
Q: How do you
think this forecast will play itself out in the stock
A: For the past 18 to 24 months we have had a
very strong rally in the big
the Microsofts, the Dells, the MCI WorldComs. If this
is going to continue, it will spread out to
the smaller-cap issues. If it
doesn't, I think
the rally will die.
For example, Oracle
is selling at or close to an all-time high, but
**Informix** is selling at half its previous all-time high.
Cisco Systems is
extremely overpriced, but
Premisys, another data communications company, is
underpriced. There are lots of mid-cap, second-tier companies
that are selling
at big disparities to the
Q: Speaking of overpriced stocks, what is your
opinion of Internet shares?
A: We are short
(positioned on) most of the Internet stocks. My theory has
been that you can pop a bubble like this without
taking the rest of the market
Internet bubble has to pop because the supply of stock is
Investment bankers are filing as many
offerings as they can, and lots of stock
to unlock from IPOs done last year as insiders are
allowed to sell
Internet mania inflated prices of issues that are not pure
A: The Internet has infected
the rest a lot more than I thought it would
Cisco, for example, has gotten an extra run because
people believe the
overwhelming demand will spread
Q: What do you tell people who own shares in
companies you consider
overpriced or fully priced --
the Microsofts, Intels, Ciscos and Lucents of the
A: I tell people that
companies like these are core holdings, that even if
the short term they go down, don't buy them so you
can trade the shares.
There are none I would run
out and buy this minute, but none I would sell right
now because they are grossly
I think people should have 30 percent to 50
percent of their portfolio in
these kinds of stocks.
If you don't already own them, start dollar cost
averaging into them over a six-month period.
although it is not fresh news (Part
Blue skies seen for tech stocks by newsletter // Some
-- not Michael Murphy --
expect the 'bubble' to
(Austin American-Statesman; 02/06/99)
It is pretty easy to be excited and amazed about
exciting and amazing
technology stocks. It is equally
easy to be scared to death of them.
year, the 250 stocks that make up Hambrecht & Quist's
rose 55.4 percent, the biggest annual
And the gains have not stopped;
for 1999 through Jan. 29, the index, which
not include Internet stocks, was up 13.7 percent. The
index was up 48.6 percent so far
All good things, of course,
come to an end. And expectations are high and
rising that sooner rather than later the bubble will
burst, particularly for
But from his office in Half Moon Bay, Calif., Michael
Murphy, editor of the
California Technology Stock
Letter, took some time recently to share his views
why technology stocks are likely to remain
Q: Last summer, technology stocks stumbled badly,
along with everything
else. You don't think that
sell-off was justified, do you?
A: No, I
don't. There was a real fear last summer and early fall
personal computer sales were not growing and
communications and semiconductor
sales were never going to
pick up. It was utterly wrong. At the time, we were
in the process of seeing accelerating sales, which
have continued into this
communications side -- hardware, routers and switches -- there
was a slowdown.
pricing bottomed in May or June, and now we are hearing
there is a real imbalance of supply and
demand for certain, mostly higher-
And that has translated pretty quickly into orders
semiconductor equipment. So the business
looks like it may be approaching a
year of normal
growth in 1999. And 2000 may be a boom year.
Q: Why is that?
A: There are three legs
to technology: communications, computing and
biotech. All three are having very strong positive product
cycles. It is those
product cycles that drive the
business, not the economy.
At the semiconductor
industry's forecasting meeting in Monterey, Calif.,
earlier this month, they were talking about sales growth
of 7 percent for 1999,
but with sales exiting
the year at a 20 percent growth rate, which is a
tremendous amount of momentum.
At the end of
this year, we will get Windows 2000 from Microsoft,
should further personal computer spending.
The Internet will continue its build-
will further communications spending. In biotech, we
had 50 new
drugs approved last year, almost
double 1997, and this year we expect that 80
drugs will be approved. There are 10 profitable biotech
That number will probably double this
Thanks for the update...I hope you didn't jinx
the board ;)
I think we'll all be glad we held
The technicals were looking good for so long, I
couldn't let go. Now...we need a strong bounce @ 8 pretty
badly. I hate it when my team is losing late in the 4th
At least I dumped DELL last week. Some
Maybe it's because you're an old ex-CTSL
subscriber. :) Anyways, just heard his take on the hotline
tonight. Says the momemtum boys are bailing out. Stock is
ridiculously cheap. Stated his strong opinion that they will
have a good quarter. His #2 new money buy, almost #1.
Noted that the market will probably continue to have
rough sledding for next two weeks, after that the
street will start looking ahead to the March quarter and
the likely good earnings tech stocks will
Look these guy's got burned by IFMX in the 20's
and 30's. they don't beleave. They will get caught
when the stock really moves and will chase it. If the
shorts get caught the stock will go. I do beleave a buy
out would be better though i think Bob F. has some
tricks up his sleave.
Informix has a serious credibility problem with
Analysts and "the Market". This unfortunately becomes a
Catch-22 with potential customers -- they won't touch
A buyout would be the best thing for Informix -- if
the buyout was by someone credible!
Hmm - another good reason not to use MS
They should look at the Web solution from Sybase,
which include Sybase PowerDynamo and High Availability
solutions with Sybase ASE (or any database you prefer).
PowerDyanmo uses ODBC and native connectivity and easily
out-features competitive products. Lacks good marketing, etc
I'm a first timer on here and have my own small
stake in IFMX. Like many of you, I keep feeling this
stock should fly. However, check out this
I can't get into Scottrade. I keep getting the
Microsoft OLE DB Provider for ODBC Drivers error '80004005'
[Microsoft][ODBC SQL Server Driver]Communication link failure
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